PHISIX Update

Can this be the final push to 3,750? It seems like the previous all time high of 3,896 is now acting as a resistance. If this resistance holds, then we are going to witness another bear flag. This time, it will be a stronger one. Why? Notice the past few bounces. Last November to December, the index was still able to climb back to its previous high. Starting January, however, the rallies are becoming shallower and shallower. This tells me downward momentum is coming  upon break of the recent low. This should bring the index to 3,750 or lower. I am ready for a break below 3,750. If the market experienced accelerations of uptrends before, I believe the market can also experience an acceleration of the downtrend. >:) I'm preparing for the worst. 

Horror Story

It seems like resistance around the 4,000 level is holding. Tan-dun-dun-dun! :-S

PHISIX Update

I just realized that I am very worried about the index. To tell you the truth, I haven't been looking at the index. It was moving sideways when the stocks I was playing were trending up. Of course, you trade the stock, not the index, that's why I haven't really paid that much attention to it up until now. I wanted to see how deeply we were buried in sh*t. :P 

In hindsight, the market gave us a sell signal when it first made a long black candle last January 18. It actually hesitated the day before. Seeing what the market did on January 17, you ought to have been more cautious since it made a potentially bearish spinning top close to resistance levels. January 18 confirmed it. Hmm... I was reviewing my ledger and I noticed I closed all positions last January 18. I shouldn't have touched the market anymore after that! :)) But, like I said, I was trying it out with the trending stocks. They became choppy given the more dominant bearish sentiment. 

Anyway, back to the index, we were given another sell signal when the PHISIX broke it's previous low and trendline support of 4008. I guess we can round that off to the psychological 4000. Today, we are retesting the index's previous all time high of 3896. 

I noticed something with all-time high plays. You remember AP, AEV, JGS, DMC, AGI, PCOR, EDC right?  What is the odd man out in that list? EDC. All the rest made smooth, resistance-less moves while EDC made a bull trap by breaking above its all time high, then breaking below it again. Sure, EDC was able to climb back up to 6 but with much difficulty. I'm not ruling out the possibility that EDC may tread new highs but all I'm trying to say is, for an all time high play to have that resistance-less feel, it should no longer threaten it's previous all time high. AP, AEV, JGS, DMC, etc. breezed past their all-time highs. It never looked back. EDC looked back. Now, the index is also. So, based on this kind of move, I am not expecting an uptrend or momentum to build in the index. Best case, we are looking at a sideways move. But the market is actually already trying to start a secondary downtrend with trendline support at 3800 to 3750. 


Sell on strength. 

Red Alert

I think I became too accustomed to prices going higher and higher that I'm very uncomfortable now that prices are declining. The short-term trader in me is scared of corrections (because the objective is to just make some money and run) while the position trader in me acknowledges that corrections are part of the overall uptrend. Just from there, you can tell  that both kinds of traders have a different levels of greed. Sometimes, this results in a conflict that I am still trying to resolve. When prices start to decline, the tsupitera in me becomes worried. And prices have been falling for three straight trading days. Oh gosh. It's very difficult watching paper profits shrink. I even have one that became a loss. I realized that loss in PNB because I decided to buy back AP. Haha! It wasn't big anyway and it was offset by a small (decreased) gain in MBT. 

Let's assess the situation. The index went down 29 points today. Yesterday, it was 53 points; last Friday, 45 points. MACD crossed down again after crossing up a few days ago. That's not good. Stochastic Oscillator, on the other hand, is still not turning but is approaching oversold levels. Based on the daily variances, the decline accelerated when the index fell 53 points. In the next couple of days, I expect prices to consolidate within a narrow range and dry up before reversing or continuing its trend. This is around 4250 to 4300. If a sharp price move should occur instead, take that as the confirmation or contradiction of your worst nightmare. >:) 

BTW, compare and contrast the index with AT. I think they look very similar. 

PHISIX Update

The index is showing signs of a waning momentum and would possibly move sideways for now. 

On the PSEi...

Before anything else, let’s take a look at the PSEi. In the short-term, we see that the market is moving within a range. It broke below its support at 3,150 but notice the market’s strong rebound after doing so. Not only did we have two bear traps, we also have a failed bearish triple top. In the long term, the market’s uptrend’s support is still intact. Now, the question is, what will the market do next?

The Dow was down last Friday by 122 points. Also, notice that last Friday, we closed near the prior support of the market’s consolidation within its upper range. (Lower range and upper range is separated by a blue dotted line) Three times the market consolidated at its highs and three times the market failed to hold above its support. Given these, it would not be surprising if the PSEi corrects tomorrow. Now, we have to determine if the correction that would occur is just a pause before continuing toward its resistance at 3,350 or if it is the formation of bearish a lower low.

I think it useful to ask yourselves: Are you looking to buy or sell? If most people are looking to buy, then most probably, the market can still continue higher. But if it is the latter, then you can also expect the opposite outcome. I, for one, am looking to buy unless proven otherwise. Of course, failure to trend up or down will lead to an extended sideways trend.