I lost 1.5% on a 10% position on LND. What a hit! Really, I can't help but scratch my head. How could I have let it go this far? This is by far the worst decision I have made this 2011. What a way to end the month! I was careless. I now have zero positions, BTW. Well, considering the market was down 2.2%, I'd say my -1.5% is okay nalang. I also earned some tea money with my PNX position too. It's still too small to counteract the -1.5% but okay nalang.
Today, the market barely rebounded. After a nose dive, we consolidated at the lows for the rest of trading. Sure, we came from a low of 100 points, and we were able to close the day just down 88 points. But seriously, you call that a bounce? I don't. :P
I noticed something yesterday and it moved today: TA. Could it already be ready to trend up? It closed below resistance but very, very promising! I guess we'll see tomorrow. Our selective market just became even more selective. Hmm...
Sorry, I haven't been posting for the past few days. This week has been a bit hectic. Anyway, last time, I said was going to take a break but...I couldn't help it!! Hahaha! I bought LND and LR. This is actually kind of like a break for me already. I didn't trade so much. I just watched two issues. LND and LR had a good run. I was able to get out with some profit. My boo boo was buying back LND yesterday at 1.44 and 1.45. I wanted to sell today but I didn't go to the office and I was kind of trading blindly. I couldn't see the postings. I was just looking at the intraday chart and had some sell orders posted. I should have just sold it down like I normally do. Argh! I guess we'll see on Monday. Anyway, I am happy to report a 10% return (ytd) from my total portfolio. Considering the market is down 5.6% ytd, I'd say I outperformed the market (so far). I hope I can keep this up. It's definitely a very, very tricky market.
I just realized that I am very worried about the index. To tell you the truth, I haven't been looking at the index. It was moving sideways when the stocks I was playing were trending up. Of course, you trade the stock, not the index, that's why I haven't really paid that much attention to it up until now. I wanted to see how deeply we were buried in sh*t. :P
In hindsight, the market gave us a sell signal when it first made a long black candle last January 18. It actually hesitated the day before. Seeing what the market did on January 17, you ought to have been more cautious since it made a potentially bearish spinning top close to resistance levels. January 18 confirmed it. Hmm... I was reviewing my ledger and I noticed I closed all positions last January 18. I shouldn't have touched the market anymore after that! :)) But, like I said, I was trying it out with the trending stocks. They became choppy given the more dominant bearish sentiment.
Anyway, back to the index, we were given another sell signal when the PHISIX broke it's previous low and trendline support of 4008. I guess we can round that off to the psychological 4000. Today, we are retesting the index's previous all time high of 3896.
I noticed something with all-time high plays. You remember AP, AEV, JGS, DMC, AGI, PCOR, EDC right? What is the odd man out in that list? EDC. All the rest made smooth, resistance-less moves while EDC made a bull trap by breaking above its all time high, then breaking below it again. Sure, EDC was able to climb back up to 6 but with much difficulty. I'm not ruling out the possibility that EDC may tread new highs but all I'm trying to say is, for an all time high play to have that resistance-less feel, it should no longer threaten it's previous all time high. AP, AEV, JGS, DMC, etc. breezed past their all-time highs. It never looked back. EDC looked back. Now, the index is also. So, based on this kind of move, I am not expecting an uptrend or momentum to build in the index. Best case, we are looking at a sideways move. But the market is actually already trying to start a secondary downtrend with trendline support at 3800 to 3750.
"Should I give up or should I just keep on chasing pavements, even if it leads nowhere?" -Adele
For the past few trading days, I feel like I have been 'chasing pavements'. This endeavor has proven to be unproductive and unprofitable. I think I am more convinced to take a break—a longer break than just my usual intraday break.
Today, my plants wilted. I decided to cut them all down; LND with minimal injury, APC with a first degree burn. I still have PNX and DFNN, both closed around my cost today. Hmm... I think I'm expecting to get more than what the market is willing to give. So, let's cool off for a while, Mark*. It's not you, it's me...Wait, it's you!!
There's something in me that is still optimistic with Ms. Market seeing that the PSEi 2-yr uptrend line is very much intact. I hope hindi lang nya ako pinapa-asa and I'm not on denial stage. :)
Anyway, I still have my long positions in NIKL, LND and have a new baby PNX. As long as my stops aren't hit, I will hold them. That's what discipline is all about. No panicking! There are still strong ships out there, if you'd ask me. I see BEL, LC/B, PNX, and NIKL as the mighty warriors of this bloody market and would be a good idea to buy their dips.
The perfect scene of a fight between bears and bulls is in LND. The weekly chart has a black spinning top with very looong wicks, talk about volatility! Daytraders probably had one hell of a time but I am only a spectator (with LND tickets of course) and just got myself amused with the fight. It's like boxing, would you prefer to be in the ring or relax as part of the crowd? :)) Let the match continue next week! Have a very relaxing weekend!
All the while I thought LND was doing unchartered territories. But upon getting a 15-yr historical data, I was surprised. Wahhh! It's record high is 10 pesos in 1996! More reason to sit tight with my positions below piso :) and wait another 10 years? for a 1000% profit potential? hahaha!
Sorry for not updating sooner. The past few days have been a bit hectic. And like I said the other day, tiring! More so this week since my trades weren't as profitable. :P Welcome to whipsaw wonderland! Last time, I mentioned FDC right? Love at first sight daw! Talk about heartache! That player! Tsk tsk. [-( Don't worry, I came out of it unscratched. Or wait, I have a paper cut. :P That's it. :) Oh, I got heartbroken with LR too. I came out of it with a small loss. I got discouraged to buy back like I normally do.
For the first time in a really long time, I had no positions yesterday. I went all in on Monday and went all out yesterday. I was about break even for yesterday. I came out with a profit with APC and BEL and CYBR but some loss in ELI and MER. Considering the market was down 80 points, I think being break even for the day was good enough. I slacked off in MER kasi eh! I didn't realize it went 14 pesos below my cost already. I was confident with my MER and but I was still shaken out. Sheesh, and today, I bought some back at a way higher price! Haha!
So, I noticed I was committing more errors as I go along. This morning, I bought NIKL at 20 only to sell to as low as 19.90. I also bought SCC at 212 but sold at 206. Again, paper cut, thanks to proper position sizing! On an ordinary day, I would have decided to keep my position on NIKL but I wasn't thinking right anymore. I was emotional and I couldn't look beyond the "now". So, I decided to take a break. To keep me away from temptation, I was researching for a good YM skin. I found one that looks like the iPhone! Here, check it! So, anyway, this break turned out to be just an intraday break. I couldn't help notice that prices were starting to rebound. Being the kind of trader who is attracted to rising prices (Positive Feedback trading), I looked at intraday charts of recent high fliers, namely LND and APC. I also noticed the foreign buying in MER and realized that the break below 260 was a bear trap. I bought them all back. I even helped in the breaking out of APC. Hihi! :) This time, I bought with more conviction and I had the confidence to hold it for at least...one more day. Nabuhayan ako bigla. I hope I don't get massacred tomorrow. :P
asldfjason Monday, January 17, 2011
I am currently doing a research on how to properly speculate on "Junior Mining Companies" which are abundant here in the Philippine Mining Industry. I came across an article written by Mr. Scott Wright, a mining expert and a contributor on the book entitled "Junior Mining Investor: 14 Natural Resource Experts Show You How to Invest Profitably in Emerging Gold, Silver, Platinum, Base Metals, and Uranium Mining and Exploration Stocks". His article is entitled "Junior Gold Stocks". In this article he outlined 5 key points where every investor who would like to speculate should focus on which are: (1) History/management, (2) exploration, (3) resources, (4) geopolitics and (5) financing/funding.
Mr. Wright also classified Junior Mining Companies into four categories namely: (1) Strong Juniors, who are on the verge of becoming gold producers and have completed advanced studies on their gold projects and are about to or have started construction of a gold mine, (2) Mid-tier Juniors, or companies that have resources that went through preliminary positive technical studies and has a defined drilling program to advance its project(s). Within the next 12 to 24 months these companies expects to make an economic viability decision on its flagship project, (3) nano-juniors, or companies that could be just getting started in the resource development game and has land holdings that are "promising" with very early testing showing encouraging results, and lastly (4) the Dot Juniors, named after the dot com bubble that happened are companies that are trend chasers, a serial promoter or a schemer. It typically spends more money on marketing, promotion and salaries than it does on exploration. And its sole purpose is to exploit the gold bull and shamelessly suck in some of the capital that junior mining stocks command. The dot-junior has no desire to ever become a miner yet can be stealthily disguised with a pretty website and fancy "market speak". According to him, one should focus on the Strong Juniors and the Mid-tier Juniors when investing and become especially beware of the Dot-juniors.
I believe that this information is relevant especially right now that the speculative stocks are in play and junior mining stocks are among them. You can find the original articles here and here. I hope this tidbit helps would be speculators out there ;-)
I'm exhausted! Imagine, I've been tsupita-ing nonstop. It really drains the life out of you. Watching every move the stock makes is really, really tiring. Today, I sold all my positions to buy only two stocks. It was only one at first, that's LR. Before trading, I was muling over which stock to buy: BEL, LR or SINO. In the end, I decided on LR since it had the steepest uptrend. This means a faster ascent. Of course, if you're going short-term, you'd want the fastest stock.Oh gosh, I'm looking at my trades right now and I have 13 entry prices for LR! Crazy, right?! My lowest cost is 6.5; highest of 7.38 with an average entry price of 6.8.
Last night, I was a very diligent student and I did my homework. Let me show you my notes!
Great notes!! (Sorry for the penmanship. I wrote that 12mn already. :P) Too bad I can't trade them all. Like I said, I reached a peak today and I was in no mood to look around. That's why I kept still in LR...
Just when I thought I wouldn't be buying anything else, I saw another diamond shining by the close. Just like MER a few days ago, there was something about FDC that drew me in. I checked the daily chart and BAM! I just knew I had to buy it. I bought with an average price of 6.01. Now that's what I call love at first sight. Haha!
In the office, there are three female traders, including me. We all have different trading personalities but for some reason, for this week only, we behaved the same way. For three consecutive days, we have been hitting CYBR like crazy! A friend of mine even commented that we were all over the ticker yesterday. More so today, I think, as we were one of the top buyers in that stock. I think this kind of behavior really is contagious as it influenced the way I trade other issues as well. No hesitation. Let's play!
So anyway, I said I bought more CYBR at the close yesterday right? Well, I chickened out near opening. I sold around 1/3 of my position at 1.15. I also had some GTC sell postings at 1.19 to 1.21. Those were all hit. Hmm... It's different, I thought. I bought back at 1.22 but it was sold down to 1.17. Hihi! I also had a buying there so I was done and I sold it at 1.19. Again, I thought, CYBR really is different! I bought more at 1.21 and 1.23. I sold at 1.28 and 1.30. I'm long now on half of my original position. This is for tomorrow! :)
Can you tell hindi ako makapakali? I noticed that this morning that's why in the end, I just decided to keep still. You may argue that I may have made more money if I kept still. That is true, but I really am still trying to get the feel of the market. If I'm uncomfortable, I sell. If I realize I made a mistake, I buy it back. I prefer playing like this than cowardly waiting for prices to go my way. Courage!
I haven't reviewed the charts but I think a lot of issues went up today. SMC looks pretty good! This morning, I sent my client a text message, saying SMC received CPR. I failed to mention that the CPR was a success and SMC is alive! He said he got nervous there for a while. Hahaha! Cheers, Melvin! :)
I have been watching ELI for a while. Yesterday, I took note of ELI and even encircled in my notes since I thought it looked really promising. It just has to take out its resistance at 0.57. Today, I made a "chicken" buy at 0.58. Ako nanaman nagpabreakout! But it didn't gather momentum right after. It hesitated a bit, at first, so I didn't buy a lot. Next thing I knew, the ticker was filled with ELI! BUY!!
Even MER didn't let me down. I told myself I was gonna go long in MER. So I didn't mind it when it started going down after hitting resistance at 275. (But really, when it was going down, I was screaming inside already. Hahaha! Yes, yes, me with little tolerance for drawdowns. But I survived!) I added 5% at 271 and another 5% at 275 when I saw an intraday breakout.
So this is what happens when you choose stress over boredom. I was getting bored already and I was willing to experiment on possible plays or promising setups. PCOR, SMC, SMB and FDC were a failure. So, I was on the lookout for the next best thing. I saw LND. I like the daily chart, so, I consulted the intraday chart for a good entry price. I saw that it was moving within a range between 1.39 to 1.43. "Sige nga," I thought. "Ipabreakout natin!" I exposed 3% from my total portfolio at 1.44. Fail! It was sold down to as low as 1.41. I sold at 1.42. (Yes, I know LND closed at 1.59. I'll get there later.)
So, on to the next trade! I saw a possible flag formation for CYBR. Intraday charts were also saying a breakout from its downtrend line. I exposed 8% of my portfolio there. That was a "chicken" position sizing call for me. I bought 5% at 1.01. Then when I saw that it was still being bought up, "Aha!" I thought. I bought another 3% at 1.02. I was really getting a bit stressed already because it just kept on going back and forth, at first. 1.01, then 1.02, then back to 1.01, buy up till 1.03 then back to 1.02... Then suddenly, BUYERS! It was bought up to 1.04 until my sell postings were hit at at 1.05 and 1.07. I was so happy to have made "coffee" money. And then it went up to 1.08 and to as high as 1.19. Waaaah! :)) I bought back higher at an average price of 1.15. I completed my 15% allocation at the close.
Anyway, I mentioned I like LND's daily chart right? I was expecting it was going to breakdown today. The fact it didn't is an indication for me that prices have a chance of going up. So, when I saw that it was fighting to hold above 1.42, and was even bought up to as high as 1.44, I decided that there really is something going on here. I posted a buy at 1.42 and thankfully, I was able to get most of the shares I sold at that price back. I also bought some more at 1.43 until 1.46! The buying didn't stop until it reached 1.60. Phew! I was able to buy more at 1.52 and even 1.58 and 1.59! Seriously, it was so hard to buy LND this morning. As Miko would always say, "The harder it is to buy the stock, the better!"
I also noticed something else near the close. It was like a diamond in the ticker. It was sparkling every time I saw it on the board. Honest! So, I checked it out. It looked like a pennant. Since I was on experimentation mode, I bought 5% at 247 to 247.8. At first, I was doubting my entry because they kept on selling it down to 246! But wait, the buyers just kept on popping up. When it crossed 248, I knew I made the right call so I bought more at 249 and even 252. :) Good day!
Down 89 points! I haven't seen that in a while but I certainly didn't miss it! I had some very expensive mistakes last week. I tried to position on stocks that looked bullish in a more medium term perspective. I thought, let's be a little patient. Well, I sold RCB this morning and PX (buy back fail) and DMC last week. A little loss but lesson learned! I think the market is telling me something. Well, I knew it all a long but for some reason, I wasn't acting on it.
My tsupita fund did pretty well last year and this year. I think I'm gonna replicate that. My only problem now is money management. See, my other portfolio is significantly bigger than my tsupita fund. It's an experimental fund and it has a high risk profile. Since the other fund is bigger, my approach there is a bit more cautious. Given the current plays now, I think I'll lessen my maximum exposure per stock, maybe 15% instead of my usual 25% until I get used to it or something.
So, today, I sold all my positions, namely, CYBR, BEL and RCB. I bought CYBR last Friday and BEL last Thursday and Friday (average up). That contributed 2% from my total portfolio in 1 to 2 days. That would have been nice but if you plot my portfolio return into like, a candlestick, it would be a black candle. :-( I "opened" 4% up, now I'm only up by 1.3%. There's something I'm doing wrong. Yes. Now, let's try to do the right thing. Let's ride the waves and selective plays! This time, let's try to maximize.
I slacked off a bit today. See, as always, I prepared some trading notes yesterday. When I saw them all breakdown, I thought, "Sheeeesh!" I should have checked the other stocks. Notes are just there for reference. Selective plays are determined on the spot! Flexibility, Christina! Well, I was a bit discouraged when I saw that the market was down 89 points. So, I didn't notice that there were other stocks that bounced! PCOR, SMC, SMB (fantastic!) and FDC. Of the four, I think I like FDC and SMB best. Will watch it tomorrow! In this case, I don't think I'll be minding the index anymore. I actually haven't been for a while. Again, I don't know why I suddenly did today. The stocks I'll be playing move against the index, after all. Let's do this!
There's this trading rule that in any sector, always trade the leading stock - the one showing the strongest trend.
One way to determine the leader of a sector is to use a Comparative Relative Strength relative with its peers (different from RSI). Based on the charts below, it looks like NIKL is now leading the race.
As of today, unfortunately, I'm holding the weakest (PX)! I've been holding on to PX from the 14 levels, nothing much has happened and I'm already getting disappointed with this one. Wait and see. PX, if you continue to underperform, I'll dump you! >:)
Anyway, nothing much has happened in my portfolio. I just bought BEL today anticipating a new high and will add more if 5 is broken. Learned a lot last year from ChristinaHunt to always trade stocks that are consolidating at the highs. :) Thank you!
Today was funny! Around 10:30am, I was already convinced that the market was headed nowhere. I even wrote somewhere, "Zzz..." After a minute or so, the stocks I hesitated to buy earlier was suddenly overwhelmed by some buying interest. I thought, "Heeeeey! THAT'S MINE!!" Just when I thought the market was gonna be a snooze, alarm bells suddenly rang and woke me up. I stand corrected. Today was actually pretty interesting! I bought RCB at 28.55 and 28.65. I bought more near closing at 29.05 and 29.1. Another issue that caught my interest was EDC. The intraday chart was clear. It was poised to breakout above 5.92. Did I listen? Noooo. I hesitated again. I ended up buying at 5.97 and 6.
Why did I hesitate? Well, I was looking at intraday charts of other issues and I can't help but notice support levels breaking. Si Amorito din!! Hahahaha! She told me to wait for the breakout. HAHAHA!! Just kidding! Her birthday is coming up, by the way. This Sunday, January 9. :)
Anyway, enough with the side kwento, I had dinner with some trader and analyst friends a few days ago. We arrived at the topic of stock picks. The two analysts (fundamentalists) were in agreement with RCB. Cheap valuations, I think? Even before this, I already expressed my interest on RCB with Harley (who doesn't like banks). :)) So, with the fundamentals and technicals in agreement, RCB has been a priority ever since. Another stock they were in agreement with was FLI. I was watching it today and oooh, there was some aggressive buying near the close. What's up with that? Whatever, it's a breakout! I bought at 1.38. I was so frustrated nga eh. The buying was so aggressive I couldn't get at a lower price! Ang bilis eh!
Oh, I made a booboo with CYBR. I bought at 0.79, sold at 0.78, bought back at 0.81 and 0.82. Exciting!! I sold because I thought I wanted LND instead. In the end, I bought both. I particularly like LND because of the bullish engulfing pattern it made today but I'm a bit suspicious about it because it had no volume. CYBR, on the other hand, looks like there was a sudden change in sentiment from bearish to bullish. Let's see if it can eradicate its previous high.
It seems like only yesterday when my officemates and I were talking about starting the year right, and that is with a profitable trade. Here we go again... My second new trading year and I started it with a momentum buy call on CYBR. \m/ I'm alive! I bought yesterday with an average entry price of 0.77. I sold today at 0.89 and 0.87. Cheers!
Anyway, last year (wow, sounds so long ago!), I said I was comfortable keeping my position on PX until 2011. Lo and behold, I sold on the first day of trading. Bearish engulfing pattern. Uhhh.. No thanks! Haha! Profit naman so I'm good. CMT was bad though. I had some signals telling me to sell but I was stubborn. That's what I get!
Hmm.. what do you think about overall market conditions? I can't help but feel a bit uncomfortable. EDC and MEG looked so promising today but they were unable to sustain their gains. I was so tempted to buy up EDC to as high as 5.99! Good thing I didn't or else... *faint*! The market is still very much selective. I'm particularly bullish on SCC and DMC. Very promising move but of course, it was also met with selling pressure by the close. P.D. If you don't remember, let me remind you I still have my DMC from last year. Conviction, right? This is the new me! :))
"It was an old trading theory of mine that when a stock crosses 100 or 200 or 300 for the first time the price does not stop at the even figure but goes a good deal higher, so that if you buy it as soon as it crosses the line it is almost certain to show you a profit. Timid people don’t like to buy a stock at a new high record. But I had the history of such movements to guide me." -Jesse Livermore
"Many years ago I began to profit from the simplest of type of Pivot Points trades. Frequently I had observed that when a stock sold at 50, 100, 200 and even 300. a fast and straight movement almost invariably occurred after such points were passed. " -Jesse Livermore
Happened recently to MER when it broke 200.. to LND when it broke 1..
Let's see what happens to PCOR if it breaks 20! :)