Stocks are bought on expectations, not facts.

Spot the difference!

LR chart now vs DMC last 2009. :)

Survived Whipsaw Wonderland

Woo! After prolonged whipsaws here and there, my portfolio has moved to past break-even today! I'm not doing good so far this year but I really learned a lot. My goal was just to survive a ranging environment. The past month has been very good for range traders but I sticked to where my strength is. I kept on buying the breakouts thinking that a trend is about to start but it was always wrong. I felt proud of myself though that despite a drawdown of 7%, I managed to be unemotional in my trades and kept my faith in my system. Who knows, April may be the best month for trend followers!

Here's my portfolio holdings and performance at the end of Q1. I should get an additional 2% when I get the cash dividend from my AP holdings. :) Good luck in Q2!

The line in green is my equity while the blue line is PSEi.


The past few months have been challenging and, most of the time, discouraging. I think this is the first time I didn't post anything for a week (not counting the times I was out on an actual vacation). :P This market made me doubt everything, even Price. What is the first tenet of Technical Analysis? Price discounts everything or Price is King. The second I doubted it, I was doomed to fail. Sabi nga sa story-less Sucker Punch, "If you don't stand for anything, you will fall for anything." I lost conviction because of our choppy market. I should have known when to stop right? Well, actually, I did! I stopped trading before, remember? I just resumed trading too soon. Oh well, who would have thought determination and perseverance would be such a bad thing?! Hahaha! I'm just kidding. Anyway, this is me, again, trying. 

The past few weeks, I've been trying to position trade. Short-term trading seemed like it wasn't working anymore so I tried something else. A realization hit me the other day. I no longer know how to position! It makes me uncomfortable. What have I turned into?? Haha! So, I decided to clean my portfolio and start again. It's not yet stark clean but I'm getting there. Yesterday, I received a ray of light in the form of DGTL. Today, it was CYBR. Similar chart setups may be found in recent plays like MER and JGS. I think they have the same setup from the previously hot stocks, AP, LPZ, DMC, to name a few. My mistake before was trying to anticipate which stocks will breakout based on a promising bottoming out formations. I can't spot cycles anymore. The laggard doesn't always follow the leader. Is it just me? I feel like the market is moving randomly. It's flaky too. So, my game plan now is to take note of stocks that look like they are bottoming out and buy on breakout momentum (I got my eye on AP and FPH). This kind of strategy ought to have worked well with PNB today, and apparently, it also did on CYBR. Since it's also a bit momentum-ish, my holding period remains short: 1 to 3 days on stocks like CYBR, then a bit longer on slower and less volatile stocks like EDC, DMC, PNB, for example. This strategy has one limitation/flaw. It's a momentum based strategy. I noticed, the selective plays are back. I just need to FOCUS and have FAITH. If all things fail, I'll have my parachute prepared. :)) 


Just in case you're wondering, yes, I'm still alive. Booyah! Hahaha! :) 
Calvin and Hobbes
Yes, I love Calvin and Hobbes! :) 

JGS Weekly Trend Model

The Great Sell-Off

Oh my... I didn't witness it happen but I certainly heard stories about it (which made it more EPIC). When I woke up around 12:40 pm (Yes, I overslept), my sister immediately told me the slaughter that occurred during yesterday morning's trading. The market was up around 30 points. One would think, "Oh, such a strong market!" I talked to a fellow trader later on and he was saying and I paraphrase, "Given that the Dow futures and other Asian bourses were trading at the red, you'd think that buying into the market held no, if not little risk."  Had I been awake during trading, I probably would have bought something! It turns out, everyone realized we were too bullish and took this as a time to  take profits. This was at around 11 am. It all went downhill from there. We closed the day 22 points lower. BTW, this trader friend of mine said he'd be taking a vacation until Friday. What an exhausting market! 

In my previous blog entry, I sounded so optimistic...Oh boy, was I wrong. Haha! I actually realized that on the 14th when cut loss on BDO, MBT and....drum roll, please...CMT. :)) Let me tell you a little secret. If I don't post a blog entry for the day, that could mean either of two things: 1) I'm busy or 2) the market is discouraging. These days, if I don't post, it would be safe to assume the latter. Hahaha! For the record though, I didn't post anything last Monday because I fell under silent choice #3: All of the above. I was both busy and the market was discouraging. Like I said, I cut on three issues that day. This made me realize I needed yet another break.

Here's why I'm worried with the market: 

Although we can't confirm it yet until a convincing break below support of 3,873, don't you think this chart looks a bit, if not entirely daunting? Don't even get me started on selected issues! :P Back to the index, we are currently consolidating within a narrow range, and close to the index's downtrend line. I would only suggest a buy on convincing breakout above this narrow consolidation. For the meantime, stay out. Afterall, the medium term trend is down even though the short-term trend is up. It's all about probabilities and we prioritize the longer term trend to determine the strength of the current trend. I hope these all made sense. And that you still have some sort of regard for my opinions even though they come from the girl who changes sentiment every other day. :P I guess all I'm saying is, we're not yet out of the woods. It's during these trying times that I'm thankful I was educated and trained to appreciate a cash position. 


This is a SELL confirmation for trend followers. Will PSE still have a mind of its own? Hmmm.


When you buy a certain stock at a certain price, it's natural to feel happy when the stock trades above your cost right? I guess it also works the other way around. When you sell a certain stock at a certain price, it's natural to feel happy when the stock trades below your selling price. Heehee! What's the point of all of these? Well, yesterday, I sold DMC at 37.50. I derived such high satisfaction when broker 267 sold DMC down to as low as 37. Sure, DMC bounced soon after that, but the fact that you destroyed it even just for a while remains. Evil Teehee! >:) The satisfaction would have been greater if DMC broke 37 but I'm not that evil. :)) I was tweeting with Gen yesterday and he was saying that DMC was going nowhere before I sold it down. See, I helped! Everybody wins! ;)

Anyway, I did something similar today. I sold NIKL. I've been holding this for a week now, and for me, that's the limit! I sold at 20.55 and 20.50. I felt such a big relief when I saw it close at 20.20. I was waiting for a breakout above 21 but we all know that didn't happen. Yesterday's black candle was the warning signal that resistance was holding. Today confirmed it. 

Let's talk about the general market. Given my better win-loss ratio, I'd say the market is most definitely performing better than February. I told you March is THE month! December 2010 to January 2011 (first half) was a tsupitero heaven. The second half of January up until February was a tsupitero killer. This March, the market is definitely showing some signs of life but I'm not sure if the short-term strategy is still the best strategy. I noticed that if I place tight stop losses, prices would usually just go back above my selling price. So, it's not very efficient. Because of this, I've decided to lengthen my holding period. I feel like this is the time to look for stocks that are bottoming out and be there before they breakout. Haha! That's the anticipating part. But what if you don't want to wait or anticipate? Coz you also run the risk of it just continuing sideways or worse, continuing its downtrend after its consolidation. Well, I look for those stocks that recently went up and are currently correcting back down. When they bounce, HELLO! :) At the top of my list are: SCC, LPZ, DMC, ALI, CMT, AP and AEV. 

General market strategy: Position-ish

I bought MBT and LND today. Honestly, they were impulse purchases. I felt like a kid who grabbed a candy by the cashier counter as I was waiting for my turn to pay. I bought MBT because I felt really frustrated with my BDO because it doesn't want to breakout like MBT. I should have stuck with the leader and not the laggard. I will never buy BDO again! As they say, you're in good hands with Metrobank, right? :P I just realized, I never made money in BDO. Always with MBT. Noted!! :)) Thing is, I can't bring myself to cut loss in BDO. Why? Kasi nandito na eh..I'm just waiting. Malapit na..sana. Haha!

Oh, I'm particularly happy with CMT. I have this certain list of stocks I don't make money from. One of them is BDO. Another is CMT. I broke the curse today. It may have just been 12 cents but given my losing history with CMT, that's a freakin' jackpot! :)) I sold today with an average price of 1.61. 

Place your bets!!

What have I been up to lately???


Photo credits:

Farm Animals
So, who's responsible for the piggery that happened at the closing this time? The market ought to have closed at the highs, gaining 22 points, but for some reason, we closed only 3 points higher. Check this out: 

Stock - Price at 11:56am - Closing Price
  ALI  - 15.04 - 14.80
  EDC - 5.83 - 5.72 
  AC - 344 - 337.2 
BDO - 49.10 - 48.90
MER - 232 - 230

Those are what I found so far. Individually, they may not be much but if you put them all together, yeah, that should explain how our market could have dropped 19 points in a few minutes. By the way, I noticed, they all had the same seller: 115. Is SB Equities gunning to be the next DBP Daiwa who is infamous for its forced closings? Hahaha! 

Anyway, today was rather exciting. The Dow was down 88 points last Friday so I made sure I came to the office early so I can watch my stocks breakdown, if ever. Ignorance is not bliss, afterall. :P I'm heavy on LR, light on NIKL and feather-ish on DMC and AEV. I sold DMC and AEV today, and bought AP and BDO. I had a daytrading fail on LR. Well, it wasn't really intended to be daytraded but I averaged up at 7.67, 7.68 and 7.80. With this, LR now has a 50% allocation in my portfolio. That got me a bit nervous (chicken) so I sold the 20% I bought today at the close. I think I lost with transaction costs. Thinking rationally now, I think I ought to have held on to it. Anyway, I'll see again tomorrow! Maybe LR will continue to surprise. :P 


Today was...okay. The market was up by as much as 70 points but the it closed lower, gaining 48 points by the close. I think this was due to some forced closings. I noticed the index dropped near the close. If I'm not mistaken, AC was forced closed 3 pesos lower. It ought to have closed around 339 pesos but it closed at 336 instead. The biggest contributor though, is AEV. It ought to have closed at 42.95 but it was forced to close at 42.50. What's up with these weird forced closings?

Anyway, like I said, today was a flat day for me. I say 'flat' because it wasn't exciting—disappointing, even. If you bought yesterday, for sure, you made some money today. If you bought today, you might have lost or best case, break even. I averaged up on DMC at 35.90. I was expecting a breakout so I took the chance. When it didn't, I sold half of the position I bought yesterday at 35.55. My cost was 34.50 so I took my 1 peso. DMC rallied to close the day at 35.85. #-o I transformed to a chicken that's why I sold half. On the daily chart, it is calling for a hold but I still sold. Damn these irrational tendencies! :P LPZ pa! I sold 10 cents too early. I don't regret it though. My only mistake is trying to guess the top. I don't guess bottoms so it should also work the other way around right? I shouldn't guess tops either. But I do! LPZ has been going up nonstop. I was so sure that it will stop around these levels. Maybe it will reach 6 pesos first? Hahaha! A profit is still a profit!

I'm on the lookout for one property and one banking stock namely, FLI and BDO. In the very short term, FLI has broken above its consolidating with its new support at 1.08. All I'm waiting for is that spike upwards. The breakout doesn't seem so convincing yet but it sure does look promising! Next resistance may be found at 1.20 or a little bit below that. BDO, on the other hand, is trying to bottom out at current levels. Immediate resistance may be found at 49. I'm looking for a PNB-like kind of move. PNB broke out today. If BDO is able to breakout on Monday, its medium term downward channel points to a resistance at 53.

Oh, I almost forgot. I'm also watching PNX. A break above 13.50 will prompt me to buy it. I've got my fingers crossed.

The chart setup I'm looking for now has changed. If before, I prefer stocks that are consolidating at the highs, now, I would settle for stocks that consolidating near their lows. Consolidations at the highs is a setup I look for to determine possible momentum. If prices do not retrace so much, the tendency of people is to chase prices. Just keep buying higher! However, psychology now has changed. In addition, the market has no momentum so I am dubious with the effectivity of this kind of strategy. Current sentiment is disbelief: "I don't believe that this stock can rally that much. I will sell when I can." In effect, prices go higher than expected since people sell early and try to buy back...higher.

Enjoy your weekend, everyone! :)


They're not a myth, afterall..You know, uptrends..  =d>

New Leaders or Dead Cat Bounce?

The first stocks to bounce back or resume trend are usually the new leaders in a bull market.

Looking into AP, FGEN, LPZ, LND. I would tend to prefer stocks that are nearer their highs. Posting charts for reference only. :)
I do have AP though, bought the other day and doubled it yesterday :D

So, I joined the Absolute Stock Trading Game using bigblind as the nick. The rules are ridiculous but am just playing for fun. Nothing to lose there and who knows, there's a 75k prize pot. haha!


I made my first transaction for the week/month today. I just got back from HK yesterday morning and I was still too groggy to do anything so I didn't even bother watch the market. Today, I woke up 10 minutes after market open so I still didn't go to the office. Hihi! I just watched the market from home. I think that was a good exercise. The past few weeks, I've been having a hard time finding my diskarte since I hear talk from other traders. Several months ago, I described being in the office during trading hours as a sports game with a live commentary. I try to read the market based on my own interpretation of ticker activity but with a commentator around, I can't help but be influenced with his/her sentiment. It's not that I'm weak or I don't have my own's just that, it's hard to stick by your own opinions when you hear a contrary point of view from someone you look up to. You get what I mean? Anyway, I'm determined to do better this month. This is my birth month after all. To the best month of the year! Cheers! ;)

Since I am once again thrown back to remedial classes, I am bringing out my small tsupita fund to play. It's easier to cut with this fund! Hahaha! I had a great remedial class last December and it paid off last January. February was bad so, here I am again. Today, I forced myself to read the ticker. The ticker hasn't been telling that much of a story recently but I did notice, if you look closely enough, there are opportunities out there. So, I glued my eyes to the ticker and it pointed out three stocks: LPZ, AEV, and MA.

I bought LPZ today. I am more bullish about AEV since it is forming new highs but currently, it is still trying to find an immediate bottom, probably before resuming it's uptrend. My rule is that I don't bottom pick. So, I will wait for either a bounce or a narrow consolidation/dried up kind of move before buying AEV. But it is definitely at the top of my list. Why LPZ then? Because it broke out from its downtrend. I'm sure it will encounter resistance around the 5.50 level but it's still a breakout. Hello, experiment # 1. I like MA because it looks poised to resume its uptrend. I didn't buy because I don't wanna buy up MA. I was too late; I don't want to chase prices. But it really looks promising as it is starting to prove that it's breakout from its major consolidation is valid.