Stocks are bought on expectations, not facts.



And oh, what a powerful thing that is.

Last Minute Excitement

Ever since APM peaked at 0.10, I have been waiting for prices to rebound. I thought I lost my chance already the first time it retested 0.067 but when I saw the doji, coupled with the red candle in the 15-minute chart last October 10, I knew it needed some more time. Last Friday, I felt something was different. Not only was APM being bought up already, I saw that it was drying up near the 0.060 level. This was the low risk entry for APM. I admit, although I saw that the breakout above 0.061 was legit, I didn't buy APM just yet. I'm still rather slow in pulling the trigger. In short, I'm sooooo chicken. I thought APM needed some more confirmation. The thing is, when you wait for confirmation, your entry would be near the top. In APM's case last Friday, the confirmation came on breakout at 0.068. I bought there. Luckily, it was strong enough until the close and I was able to escape near the close. I sold 1/3 of my position at 0.071 but when I was it was a potential flag, I bought back on breakout again at 0.074. I sold that at 0.78 and the remaining 2/3 of my position (cost of 0.068) at 0.075. Phew! Pwede na. Next time, I need a better entry point. When the chart says it's a go, it's a go! If not, kambyo nalang. Hahaha! Moral of the story is...COURAGE! Trade what you see and not what you feel. ;) 

It's been a while...

I was reading my previous posts and realized how much I missed writing about the market and writing in general. I decided to resume blogging here instead of the new one I mentioned before because I started here and it has almost all of my thoughts since I started trading. I might be sentimental that way. But not so much.. Haha!

Anyway, I recently started trading again after a two month break. I may have missed certain run ups but I think it was a generally good idea. I haven't had a very long break. I also felt disconnected with the market so I wasn't that productive... I resumed trading just two weeks ago. I'm glad to say I have regained my "vision". Just like before, I could actually spot the "lightweight" stocks that could move the next day. I usually go through the all the charts from A to Zzz every night and I watch out for stocks that could move the next day. Like example, yesterday, I wrote down BRN and guess what, BRN is up 5.96% as of this writing. But for some reason, I can't trade it. Something's in the way and I can't seem to identify it.

I am actually writing because I'm a bit frustrated and writing actually helps me think things through. I had a glimpse of how I can be without that invisible obstacle. Yesterday, for some reason, I felt happy. And when I'm happy, I feel light. I feel free. I knew instantly that PX could move up and I bought at 14.4. I was able to sell at 15.24. At the end of the day, I was just breakeven but the point is, I started trading again. I traded what I saw. Reflexes were lightning fast. The past few weeks, I'm slow to react. Uuuuuugh... What's holding me baaaaack? I need to figure this out.

Moving Out

I have decided to make a new blog called Return to Sender (  Thoughts of a Novice Trader is too restrictive to stock market posts.  With the market not as encouraging as it was before, I have found myself seeking other activities that I cannot write about in this blog, simply because they are not market related.  Return to Sender will not only cover my thoughts on the market but other aspects of my life as well, including my recent interest in Mountaineering.

Monday Shmonday

Yiiiikes! The market is definitely not looking too well. Breakdown, anyone? The PHISIX was down 52 points today. Considering the Dow fell by 350 points, I thought we'd do worse. I think down 350 is now the new down 100 points. Remember the times we once felt a -100 was already such a disaster? Volatility in the Dow is definitely increasing. I don't think that's such a good thing. Also, this has got to be the longest basura run. These aren't signs of a healthy market. I've been hearing scary predictions of -20% (at least) for the PHISIX next year. Then a -40% for the Dow next year. What do you think?
Today's highlight was the introduction of Philex Petroleum (PXP). It opened at 3 pesos then spiked to as high as 13, dipped to as low as 7.4, rallied back up to 9 pesos then moved sideways from here until it closed the day at 8.6. WILD! I think the move in PXP lit something in the oil industry or oil related issues. OPM tried to breakout today but still closed within its range. BSC? UNI? SOC? Hmmm...

AR vs. UPM. Haaaay! I got in the slower and much weaker horse. 


"Why do you build me up, buttercup baby, 
Just to let me down and mess me around?" 

I dedicate this song to the so-called  jockey of WPI who built it up then let it down. So, what did he do? I didn't follow WPI intraday but I did hear some stuff about it. So, I'm reviewing the time and sales information to match what little info I have. I think he bought WPI from .65 to .68. I remember being amazed when I found out he was able to "secretly" sell all that he bought at .71 to .73. I said "secretly" because I didn't notice that he sold all already. I think he didn't sell it down. Instead, he just posted his selling and people just bought him up. When it failed to bounce back as expected, he sold down his core shares starting from .66 to .64. In a nutshell, its freakin' amazing how he was able to make a market for WPI for his portfolio size and come out of it alive. A true master at work. Hands down! :)) 

Today was definitely a basura day. Can you just imagine me skipping happily in a pile of basura, if you wanna take it literally? =)) My favorite today was BKD. I was buying it from 1.21 to 1.32. I was able to escape with some profit as I sold at 1.43 and 1.32. I'm finding it interesting figuring out which basura will fly next. I actually still have a position on EVER. I have my fingers crossed. I bought this just last Friday then bought more yesterday and today. BHI was the one that got away. 

Domino Effect

There wasn't much excitement during the first few minutes of trading. LC lang ata ung kumikinang sa mga mata ko nung una. But the thing is, LC gapped up again today and I was very hesitant to try to squeeze whatever money I could. I tried several times last week. The first time, I escaped with a little profit then the second and last try, with a small loss. Knowing LC has been going up for three days now, no way in hell would I re-enter at current levels. I thought it was gonna be a boring day. There isn't much excitement when Dow is up, don't you think? For someone with barely any position, it's very boring when prices gap up. But today was a little bit more special. Someone turned the light switch on and the PWR came on. ;) 

Paris Hilton? Haha! I've been hearing noise about her visit here two Fridays ago. A friend of mine bought PWR last August 5 in anticipation of a surge based on such news. Apparently, he bought too early and just when he thought the news was discounted already and there won't be any play anymore, PWR surges today. Anyway, he was still able to day trade it so, congrats! :)) 

Play. These days, traders are always on the lookout for what the next play is. The play in PWR woke some idle money up and I noticed they hit ZHI next. ZHI was lazily trading within a narrow range from 1.04 to 1.06 after reaching a high of 1.08 by the open. ZHI hit a 1.09 in this run but fell again by the close. I think we could use some comedy so let me tell you what I did with ZHI today. I bought near the open at 1.06. I was already so itchy to sell it down to 1.05 when I saw that it wasn't the time yet. But I decided to hold onto it first and see how it pans out. When the bids were toughening up and PWR started soaring, I kind of knew ZHI was next. I was right. It went to 1.09 but did I sell? Noooooo. I sold at 1.05. Then bought back again at 1.05. ZHI closed at 1.04. What the hell was I thinking?? Hahaha! I really like the intraday chart. I should have thought this would require a little more time since it definitely has no momentum yet and is still moving sideways. Duh, Christinuuuh! Hahaha! Umm, hanggang 1.04 nalang ako. Promise! :)) 

Today was like a domino effect. First was PWR, then ZHI, then all of a sudden, basura was flying everywhere! MRC, WPI, WIN, ARA...

The Trade that Saved Me

Whoo! That was one hell of a week. All my positions were stopped out except for LCB. My portfolio suffered a massive decline as I was heavy in AT,GERI and SECB. :( Moving on..

Thanks to Lolo, I made all those lost profits back. Seeing that LCB was holding strong during the bloodbath, I bought more with conviction. Let's see if this trade continues next week. :)

I was also very thankful to a tweet by DarvasTrader
"But remember that you don't need to sell everything as soon as a Downtrend begins. Stick to your stops. Some leaders WILL hold up. $$"


Roller Coaster Stock of the Day

And this award goes to.... 

Boulevard Holdings, Inc.

Just the other day, an office mate of mine asked if I was the one who bought "Boulevard of Dreams". I said, no, baka maging Boulevard of Broken Dreams. Well, I believe the dreams are being fixed now. :P Anyway, the daily chart of BHI looks like a weaker ZHI. BHI was consolidating within a narrow range between .192 and .206. When I saw that it even gapped up today, I decided to buy a little. Experimental shares. I started buying at .202. When somebody followed and even ate up the next fluct, I decided to try again. I bought another batch at .204, .205, .206 then .21! It consolidated around .21 then booooom! .22! Then booooooom! .20. =)) I think this stock is also vying for "Heart Attack Stock" on top of being my Roller Coaster Stock of the Day.