Benguet Corporation (BC)

Yes, I'm back to basura. HAHAHA! Being a tsupitera is a hard habit to break. Once bitten by the tsupitero bug, there's no going back. Anyway, BC is just a cheap thrill. Ever since I bottom picked RFM, I can't shake out the feeling that basura plays are back! In fact, when I do my post market notes, my watchlist is dominated by basura stocks... Hmmm... 

Anyway, my story for RFM is, I bought at 1.14 because I thought there was accumulation going on. But I was suddenly shaken out because of the fear that it can consolidate forever!! So, I sold at cost then after a few days, BOOM! Bye bye! Hello, 1.28. Naman... But BC is another story. I bought last Friday at 20.30. Teehee! Look at the chart. I don't know if you see what I saw last Friday but to me, that was a breakout and today it had momentum and I sold! BC is prone to one day spikes... If it still does go up tomorrow, it's okay. Take your profits and run. I was lucky enough that BC behaved according to expectations. What fun! :) More, please! :) 

Speculative Bottom Strategy

I noticed, the longer I've been trading, the shorter my holding period becomes. When I was still starting out, I was a full fledged position trader. My maximum holding period was three months. I never day traded or held a stock just for one day. Well, things have definitely changed. The setups I like now were setups I didn't even dare trade. In momentum trading, I generally believe it's better when the price is located at the highs, and shallower corrections are preferred over deep ones. These days, such a belief system is no longer ideal. In fact, they can just get you killed. You can't just hit anything that moves nowadays because momentum is not always sustained. 

I was trying to remember the setups I looked for when I was a position trader. I remember my "low risk" speculative bottom strategy. (Contraditory ba? Low risk but speculative? Haha!) Basically, I look for stocks that have corrected already. Then I look for signs of a slowing downside momentum. I have two buying opportunities: 

1. On a small bodied candle (buy as low as you can);

2. When it looks dried up already. 

I practiced this yesterday on MPI, EDC and FGEN, to which I got interesting results. 

 

Following this setup, MEG, SECB and PNB looks bullish to me. Now, I'm trying to figure out the ideal holding period in this kind of setup... 

D.I.P. it baby!

Wasn't able to ride D and I today that's why I decided to go with P.

D - DMC left me Dumbfounded

I - ICT was Interesting

P - PX was Perfect!! I bought PX when it broke out of its resistance of 16. Sana hindi sya maging Paasa :))

Another L Affair...

For the past 4 weeks, I've been "playing" with the first L of my life...

LR 

I was able to get it at 7.36 then I sold it at 12. But after that, things started to become shaky between us... And after so many whipsaws (I repeat WHIPSAWS - ALL CAPS), I decided to leave LR (for now but hey I'm still bullish on this issue) and move on to a perfect stranger...

There he was... I didn't notice LPZ at first, he was quiet and reserved (consolidating in other words). In my whole trading experience (I started playing last December 2009), this was the first time I decided to play with this stock. The chart looked promising to me (it has been consolidating for quite some time already, the bollinger bands were starting to narrow, the stochastics was turning upward already and most of all there was volume today), so I decided to buy at 5.50

It just broke out of its resistance of 5.60 now let's see if this L affair would last for a couple of days. Although I have a feeling that it will retest its previous high of 5.75 tomorrow....

What do you think?

Dilemma

I need your opinion. Which chart looks better?

CYBoRg

A friend told me recently, "Since you have a lot of imagination to play with, I'll leave it up to you." Let me bestow you the same courtesy. I drew the lines already so that should already guide your imagination. :)) 

T.G.I.F.

Today was...okay. The market was up by as much as 70 points but the it closed lower, gaining 48 points by the close. I think this was due to some forced closings. I noticed the index dropped near the close. If I'm not mistaken, AC was forced closed 3 pesos lower. It ought to have closed around 339 pesos but it closed at 336 instead. The biggest contributor though, is AEV. It ought to have closed at 42.95 but it was forced to close at 42.50. What's up with these weird forced closings?

Anyway, like I said, today was a flat day for me. I say 'flat' because it wasn't exciting—disappointing, even. If you bought yesterday, for sure, you made some money today. If you bought today, you might have lost or best case, break even. I averaged up on DMC at 35.90. I was expecting a breakout so I took the chance. When it didn't, I sold half of the position I bought yesterday at 35.55. My cost was 34.50 so I took my 1 peso. DMC rallied to close the day at 35.85. #-o I transformed to a chicken that's why I sold half. On the daily chart, it is calling for a hold but I still sold. Damn these irrational tendencies! :P LPZ pa! I sold 10 cents too early. I don't regret it though. My only mistake is trying to guess the top. I don't guess bottoms so it should also work the other way around right? I shouldn't guess tops either. But I do! LPZ has been going up nonstop. I was so sure that it will stop around these levels. Maybe it will reach 6 pesos first? Hahaha! A profit is still a profit!

I'm on the lookout for one property and one banking stock namely, FLI and BDO. In the very short term, FLI has broken above its consolidating with its new support at 1.08. All I'm waiting for is that spike upwards. The breakout doesn't seem so convincing yet but it sure does look promising! Next resistance may be found at 1.20 or a little bit below that. BDO, on the other hand, is trying to bottom out at current levels. Immediate resistance may be found at 49. I'm looking for a PNB-like kind of move. PNB broke out today. If BDO is able to breakout on Monday, its medium term downward channel points to a resistance at 53.

Oh, I almost forgot. I'm also watching PNX. A break above 13.50 will prompt me to buy it. I've got my fingers crossed.

The chart setup I'm looking for now has changed. If before, I prefer stocks that are consolidating at the highs, now, I would settle for stocks that consolidating near their lows. Consolidations at the highs is a setup I look for to determine possible momentum. If prices do not retrace so much, the tendency of people is to chase prices. Just keep buying higher! However, psychology now has changed. In addition, the market has no momentum so I am dubious with the effectivity of this kind of strategy. Current sentiment is disbelief: "I don't believe that this stock can rally that much. I will sell when I can." In effect, prices go higher than expected since people sell early and try to buy back...higher.

Enjoy your weekend, everyone! :)

Awestruck

They're not a myth, afterall..You know, uptrends..  =d>

Trans-Asia Oil and Dev't Corp.

Acceleration of the utprend. Poised to retest previous high of 1.37? 

Look-alike?

Do I see a bounce in APC coming? 

Resistance: 0.76

Target: 0.82, 0.87


The weakness in the BEL group is a bit of a concern though. But let's let the chart speak for itself. Just note that ELI is really stronger since the retracement is relatively shallower. Plus, when ELI breached a new high, it went farther from its previous high... :P 

RSA

Position-ish

Do I seem fickle to you? Why? Because I'm bullish again. :P But wait, don't get me wrong, I'm still going with my "very selective market" line but my list of stocks I am bullish about has expanded a bit. It's still a bit experimental though. It's experimental because it has a different chart setup from my tsupita trades. So, I'm thinking it would be more of a position-ish trade. Here are the stocks I like:

1. AGI - Finally, after three straight days, it is correcting back down from a high of 13.12. It looks like AGI is resuming its uptrend after a month long consolidation. A (buying) window is currently open. Support may be found at 12.30. I will remain confident that the current uptrend is intact as long as prices hold above this level. 

2. AT - Failed head and shoulder top indicates a continuation of the prior uptrend. With this, I think it's possible for AT to retest its previous high of 19.98. Be mindful of resistances at 17.74 and 18.4. Buy the dips.

3. PX - Appears to be taking its cue from AT. Immediate resistance may be found at 15. 

4. DMC - Formed a bear trap by falling bellow support at 33. It is now retesting its down trend line resistance. Now, we will see if the bounce is of the dead cat variety or if it had some strength behind it. Resistances to watch: 35.5 and 37.85.

5. BPI - Looks poised to retest its recent high of 61.50. Note that 61.25 was the 2007 triple top high. A convincing break above these levels will make BPI look bullish in the long term. 

6. EDC - Last Friday, EDC looked like it hit resistance and was ready to go lower again. Today though, instead of doing just that, it even went above last Friday's high of 5.86. Also, notice that EDC has been forming bullish higher lows (L1= 5.33; L2= 5.54). This tells me that EDC is, indeed, trying to form a bottom. To confirm, EDC will have to convincingly break its resistance of 5.97. 

(Save the best for last)

7. CMT - My pick for tomorrow. I'm almost sure that momentum is coming for this stock. Don't you find it curious why CMT hasn't touched its psychological support of 2 pesos in a while? It has been consolidating above its higher support of 2.07 the past few days. 

Philex Mining Corporation

PX has been consolidating for the loooooongest time. And because of that, I like it more! In the medium term perspective, it's trying to break its downtrend. In the short-term, it is moving sideways with support at 13.8 and resistance at 14.20. There is actually, a lower support level at 12.90 but see how fast PX bounced from this low? That indicates PX can no longer fall any further. So now, I am waiting for a convincing break above 14.20. But still be mindful of resistance at 15 pesos. The inability to break 15 would make it look like PX is merely moving within a 2 peso range from 12.90 to 15. It is only upon breaking the 15 level that PX has a chance of retesting 17.

Cebu Air, Inc.

I've been waiting for CEB to form something...anything! I've been on the lookout for CEB for a few weeks now ever since I saw the symmetrical triangle it was trying to form. Since it has no prior trend to continue or reverse, I'm taking my cue on short-term trends. A symmetrical triangle is a neutral pattern anyway so it can go either way. See the 50 cent consolidation it made last week? When it broke above this last Thursday and even made a follow through last Friday, I was more confident that it can break its resistance at 127. If it does, then we are looking at a target of 144.6 but still be mindful of its horizontal resistances at 129.4 and 133.5. 

The Only Game In Town

The market is not doing so well. I think our bleeding portfolios is enough proof of that. If we take a look at the index, it is dangerously courting support at 4,050. Remember last Wednesday, the index formed a bullish looking hammer? I took that as a sign that prices no longer want to go down further. The Dow went up big time that night and apparently, people took this as an opportunity to sell. We closed the week near the lows at 4,053. The index's potential downtrend line seems to be holding. All we need now to confirm the downtrend is a convincing breakdown below 4,050. Yikes!  

Given our market conditions, I don't even bother bottom picking because low is relative. Oh wait, actually, I tried in MPI last Thursday. It was an experiment that failed! I bought near support at 3.71 but MPI closed the next day below support at 3.56. I cut loss at 3.65 and 3.59. :P If you think about it, we haven't really corrected that much. We just think the correction is so deep already because we bought at higher prices. So, if you think you're wounded and bleeding now, I think the market will give you more reasons to think again. 

If you look closely though, there are actually a handful of counter trend stocks. The more obvious one is PCOR, followed by SMC, PNX, CMT and BEL. That is in the order of strength.

Semirara Mining Corporation (SCC)

Two weeks ago, SCC bottomed out at 127.50 to rally to as high as 160 last week. If you'd notice, this sharp move broke SCC's trendline resistance of 150. The mere fact that it is currently consolidating at its highs is bullish. SCC now looks like it is just resting before continuing higher. A break above 160 may potentially bring SCC to 185 but mind resistance at 170. Buy if breakout. 

Caveat.

China Banking Corporation (CHIB)

CHIB broke above its short-term consolidation with resistance at 453 last Thursday but, if you refer to the daily chart of CHIB (first chart), you can see that it did not follow through on its gains last Friday. It is still holding above its new support at 453 so the breakout is intact as long as it holds above this level. A convincing breakout should bring CHIB to 490 to 500. 

Buy if support holds 

Stock Picks

Hi all, 

Please click on the links to read the brief TA I wrote on property and banking issues, namely, ALI, RLC, SMPH, VLL, PNB, SECB, and BPI. I would like to stress the importance of their respective support levels to hold for their uptrend to continue. As always, caveat. 

XOXO,

Christina

First Philippine Holdings Corporation (FPH)

As of today's trading, FPH looks poised to accelerate to the upside. Notice that FPH is no longer trading within the (blue) channel but within the new (red) channel, which has a steeper slope. Last Friday, FPH tested its support at 67. Today, it bounced off that low. FPH may retest its previous high of 72 in the next couple days. A break above this level should lead us to an initial target of 75. 

Robinsons Land Corporation

I have been accumulating Robinsons Land Corporation (RLC) since the start of September. I believe that RLC will be the next property stock to go up since its fundamentals are well intact and its chart has been looking more and more attractive for each trading day that passes.

Fundamentals

Robinsons Land Corporation (RLC) has one the highest Return on Equity (ROE) and Return on Assets (ROA) in the property sector. Its Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is also the most attractive based on 2011 Earnings per Share (EPS).

The upcoming REIT law should also be taken into consideration because according to Citiseconline.com, the value of RLC could be unlocked through this investment vehicle since most of its assets (60%) could be spinned off into one.

If one looks at the Bloomberg Terminal, based on September 16, 2010, RLC has a "Buy" tag from 100% of the analysts that covered this stock. These are Kabigting from UBS, Laneda from Citiseconline, Velasco from Phil Equity partners, Puig from Kim Eng Sec, Balita from SB Equities, Lopez from JP Morgan, and Alex Pomento from Macquarie.

Technicals

On the technical side, I can see from RLC's weekly chart that the down trend ceased during the first quarter and has continued to retrace above its 38.2% and 50% retracement levels.

With solid fundamentals, good prospects for the future, and a more aggressive project launches this quarter, I believe that it is just a matter of time before this baby breaks out of its current resistance at 16. (By the way, do you see a cup and handle in the works here?) ;)