Stocks are bought on expectations, not facts.

By the way,

what the hell is wrong with ANI?

On Disbelief and Greed

Spectacular move on SCC today! I asked myself this morning...Why in the world do I not follow my own recommendations? Hahaha! First target objective achieved! :) And wow, a six peso cash dividend, just like last year! 

The Aboitizes continued to go up today but if you look at the chart, it's still too early to say that they are continuing their uptrend. 

I was talking to an officemate this morning. He told me his thoughts about the reason behind the strength and weakness of selected issues. In the strong stocks, a lot of people sell early, thinking that the uptrend is over. When they are proven wrong, they end up buying up higher, which fuels the stock to go higher. If you'd take a look at AP, it has been on an uptrend since the latter part of 2008. Last year, I saw this one was in an uptrend but did I buy? No. It was only recently that I started buying and I already sold. And I bought back higher. Hahaha! Perfect example. Although it is kinda scary to buy AP already since it's so high! Parabolic spike. Actually, we've been calling a parabolic spike on this one for a long time already but it still hasn't stopped going up. Maybe when you hear everybody say it's headed to 20 that AP will not reach 20. I heard somebody say that he was given a tip that it's gonna be 20. But did he buy? No. As I said, I'm still kind of scared of AP. So, as long as people are scared, maybe this one can still head higher. So..Fear is good! The scarier the better! I have my fingers crossed. 

ICT was a bit frustrating today as it wasn't able to sustain its gains. This morning, I was thinking whether I should sell already because of the similarity of the price movement it did today and yesterday with last April 21 and 22. If you'd notice, day 1 of this two day formation is a long white candle. In day 2, it gaps up at the open, rallies to a certain price but isn't able to hold on to its gains. If history is right, ICT may consolidate for the next couple of trading days.

Because of ICT, we had some bloopers in the office today. See, there are two traders who have ICT. When they saw ICT at 31 today, they were already tempted to sell and secure their profits. But did they sell? No. When it started to go down, they pointed fingers at each other. Jokingly, of course. 

Trader 1: Si Trader 2 kasi eh! Naglabas ng calculator...
Trader 2: Sabi mo kasi, 35 coming!
Trader 3: That's what you call greed.


Sea of Red

During market open, my stocks were drowning. Gap down! I bought ICT yesterday at 28.5 and it broke my heart when I saw it open at 27. Most stocks went down, of course. In fact, my quote page was practically breeding red (except for ORE, which performed well at the start but wasn't sustained intraday). It was only during the second half of trading that my quote page turned yellow and even green by trading end.


What the market did today was amazing. We were down by almost 60 points at the start and we closed only 22 points down. The Great Rebound! I was actually waiting for prices to go down some more, like DMC and RLC below 15.5. But it didn't. Instead, DMC broke out! Whaaat? ICT was spectacular too. I was pulled out of the water! Haha! In hindsight, I should have bought at 27, right at the support. I was slow to react. 

I was disappointed with FLI today. Weak! Although 0.95 is already the support. FLI and MEG have the same short-term picture but today, MEG was stronger, having been able to close at 1.32. In FLI's world, that's around 0.97-0.96. 

Slow Ride, Take It Easy

Aside from a few spectacular moves, the market was sleepy today. So if you weren't holding PIP, SMDC or DMC, you were probably very bored. Oh, wait, if you're an EDC shareholder, I think you're satisfied for the day. Happy, even. It's a one fluct game, guys. EDC is a slow drive, much slower than MPI. (LOL)

I think the highlight of the day for most traders was the last two minutes before run-off. It is during this time that the ticker goes wild with, you know, last minute purchases/sales before interested parties mark the close of their closely watched stocks...(Hahaha!) But more importantly, Chuuuucky time! Today, it was ABA and MRC. I don't know how you guys play this. I certainly can't stomach so much volatility in such a short time but congrats to those who were able to make money during the last two minutes.

So, tell me, did Chucky give you money today? :)

Guess Who's Back

The Aboitizes are back!

Of course, EDC joined the fun. 

It looks like the players of ORE shifted to ACR. We got a clear breakout above 0.95 with volume! Double bottom neckline resistance at 1.08. 

BTW, I know someone who will be drinking PIPsi from now on... :-P 

Stock Picks

Stock Picks section updated! Only two featured stocks this week: SCC and LIB. Although I'd like to express my bullishness on these selected issues as well: FLI, MEG, EDC and TUNA.

Happy trading, everyone! Let this week be a profitable one.



Exciting last few days for ORE holders. Yesterday though, ORE showed its first sign of weakness. Huge volume near its resistance, coupled with a weak close after two days of strong and sharp price movements, point to a short-term correction. Break of 1.90 to confirm. Support may be found around 1.78. 

Hmm....I wonder what's next in line...I've been hearing it's gonna be TUNA...strong rebound off its support at 1.62 but is now hesitating below 1.76. 

I'm quite happy with my recent purchase of MPI. My only regret is not buying enough. I already sold half at 3. In fact, I thought I wouldn't be able to sell at 3. During the latter half of trading, the number of sellers were increasing from 8M to 20M, 30M then finally, 50+M. But, for some reason, during run-off period, the buyers went wild. Naging buyers pa ung 3. Amazing! With the huge volume yesterday, it looks like it will retest its horizontal resistance of 3.1 and maybe its recent high of 3.25. Hmm...Where shall I shift my money to next? I wanna get more MPI but I'll do that after this swing. 

Wake Me Up When Trading Ends...

Today's trading wasn't that exciting for me. I had no ORE or ICT so not much excitement for me today. I already sold my URC too so I couldn't join in the dance of joy. Oh wait, EDC was quite strong while the other Lopezes were 'naghihingalo'. I think EDC and RLC were my only joy today. (LOL) I was able to sell the RLC I bought yesterday at 14.50 at 14.75 and 15 today. Totally tsupita, I know. I wonder if I'll be able to buy back again. I still had my eye on DMC and AEV, just watching. AEV looked strong but lacked volume. DMC has yet to gain momentum, maybe after a break of 15.50.




No, not Vantage Equities, not any stock for that matter; rather, a V reversal. 

What do you think? Is the market now a buy? Did you hesitate to buy anything today? If you did, then for sure, you're not the only one who hesitated. So, a lot may have been left behind with today's move. In fact, today, I was still a seller during the first half of trading. I sold my DMC and URC. But wait, have you seen the chart of DMC? It recovered its losses from yesterday. Bear trap? It looks like it. Although I want to see the buyers eat up 15.5 tomorrow first. If I recall correctly, DMC was just forced closed at 15.50. Still a very promising short-term bullish setup though. 

A lot of the charts look the same, especially their stochastics (5, 3, 3). If you'd take a look at stocks like AGI, EEI, DMC, AC, MEG, FLI, MPI just to name a few, you'd see that their stochs are already turning if they haven't crossed up yet. Take a look at price though, there are still some stocks which have to eliminate a resistance. Today, you see a strong bounce off support, which is bullish. To make it more bullish, we need to see a break of their immediate resistances. So, for those who weren't able to buy, you watch out for that breakout. 

Today was really spectacular... If yesterday, we had a panic selling, today, during the latter half of trading, we had a panic buying! Oh, how sentiment changes fast! 

So, are you bullish or bearish? 

PANIC! at the Market

Weird...Weak! With Dow going up by 73 points last night, I expected the market to be alive today. Instead, it died! Real panic ensued today, not yesterday. Several issues broke down and yesterday's spectacle proved to be a one hit wonder yet again. PSEi is now approaching support at 3,130 to 3,100. Will it hold? I wonder...

...Fear is good!! (Haha!)

Monday, Bloody Monday

So...still alive? I'm experiencing...shortness of breathe. Haha! Just kidding. 

Anyway, my stocks are hanging on by a thread. In some aspect, they looked like they may have broken down but another support held. This goes for EDC and ANI. Let's see how they will behave tomorrow. Anyway, somebody panicked in RLC. I should have posted a buy order at 14.25. I think it would have been done at 14. But, you know, being barat me, I posted it at 13.75. If you watch RLC like I do, RLC at 14 was a buy. I guess a lot of people thought that so barely anything was done at 14 to 14.50. Real transactions happened at 14.75. Haaay. The perfect trade can be found in hindsight. LOL. 

Of all my positions, I never would have thought I'd be happy to be holding CPM. I've been holding this stock for almost two months now. Maybe it has finally decided to let me out. Short-term resistances may be found at 3.65 and 3.80. I doubt this one will easily break 3.80. For sure, this will be met by sellers, like me. I don't think I'm the only one. 

Stock Picks

Stock Picks Section has been updated. The three featured stocks are: BEL, CMT and FLI. 

I think we all need good luck for tomorrow's trading. Who's not scared of the 125 pt. drop of the Dow? I will just keep in mind that "Fear is good." So, good luck to everyone!


Hello, Red!

What a weird market! Dow Jones was up by 100 points last night but the PSEi still ended the day on the red. Sure, futures were down, but not that much! Property stocks like FLI and MEG began to correct today, and even the mighty, mighty AEV! AP was still able to rally to as high as 15.25 before closing unchanged for the day. By the way, thank you Mount Peak Securities for buying 200 shares of my AP at 15.25. It didn't fulfill my whole sell order but at least I can proudly say I was the only one who was able to sell AP at the high today. Haha! Anyway, even FGEN and FPH, which looked like they were bullishly consolidating at their highs formed long black candles today. APC, SINO and BEL failed to follow through on their up move yesterday. I guess the market really wants to correct already. The game plan now is to look for support levels and see if those will hold. 

Well, enough about the losers. :-P ICT was especially strong today. It was able to break its resistance at 25.5 to close the day at 27.5. I read ICT will have a 0.40 cash dividend: Ex-date on April 27, payment on May 20. DMC performed quite well too. It's short-term consolidation is still intact but a break above 16.5 may bring DMC to 18. 

I didn't do much today. I bought back MEG at 1.38 after selling at 1.42 the other day. I thought it would be a good time to unload so I sold the PX I've been holding on to for a few weeks already then suddenly, Macquarie and J.P. Morgan began to buy! Could I have been the buy indicator already on PX? (LOL). Sold some of my RLC too. 

Triple Play

The APC-SINO-BEL trio is at it again! APC and SINO were two of the top ten gainers for the day, with APC rising almost 20% and SINO, 10% from its previous close. Although BEL isn't part of the top gainers, it has actually been rising for the past couple of days. In fact, it's rate of ascent increased starting three days ago as it broke above its resistance of 1.94. It's about time that APC and SINO caught up with this one. 

Looking at a more macro view, BEL is definitely the strongest among the three. In the very short-term, this can potentially go up to 2.20 but I expect resistance at 2.10 first. BEL has a promising short-term setup, but has to hold above 2.02 to work. 

APC recently consolidated within a 4 cent range from 0.51 to .055. I didn't expect that it would break its resistance so easily. In fact, today, it broke out in a lot of levels. First, in its resistance at 0.55 then on 0.59 and its Average True Range (ATR) of 2 cents. This all just shows how strong APC was today. Next resistance level to watch is its previous high of 0.66. 

SINO is moving within a range with support at 0.28 and resistance at 0.34 to 0.35. Break this resistance and SINO could potentially be headed for 0.38. 

Enough about the trio! The Aboitizes remained strong today. They continued to power higher but the difference in strength finally showed with AEV being the stronger of the two. Although both stocks were able to climb to their upward channel resistances, notice that AEV now has a steeper rate of ascent. This affirms that AEV, indeed, has more momentum than AP. Also, AEV was able to close the day at its highs while AP retreated after achieving its ascending triangle target of 14.75.

IMI was also strong today. It broke its resistance at 12.75 and even reached a high of 14.5 before closing the day at 14.25. Looks good to me. Maybe this one can finally fill its gap to 15. I'm happy to have made a 1 peso gain on this one. 

Every House Needs Electricity

Congratulations to all those who were able to buy AEV before it broke 14.25! Target of box range achieved at 15.25*. I now regret not buying AEV yesterday when I had a chance. Haha! But anyway, life goes on, right? Instead of sulking over it, I checked how AP was doing. It was doing at around 13.5 while AEV was doing at around 14.75 to 15 already. Aha! I bought AP instead. Luckily, it was able to close the day at its highs, just like its mother, AEV! AP's upward channel points to a resistance of 14.5. Its bullish ascending triangle points to a target of 14.75. There is also psychological resistance at 15. So, in a nutshell, AP is approaching resistance areas. 

Property stocks also shared the limelight for the day, which was led by MEG, the strongest property stock today. It opened at 1.40 and even reached a high of 1.44. I thought this one would be sleeping for the day as it even went to a low of 1.36. But lo and behold! It was able to rebound back to 1.44 by the end of the day.  Now it's FLI lagging behind MEG, when a few trading days ago, it was the other way around. If MEG continues to go up tomorrow, you can expect resistance at around 1.48 to 1.52. Then for the sake of those who got left behind, let's hope this one consolidates or corrects first so we can take part of the next wave! 


*For a more detailed analysis on AEV, do click the link under the Stock Picks section at the right labeled as Stock Picks for April 12 to 16, 2010 

Energy Development Corporation (EDC)

In the short-term, EDC is moving sideways with 4.95 as support and 5.2 as resistance. It recently broke its symmetrical triangle resistance at 4.85 to 4.9 and is now hesitating right below its previous high of 5.3. Aside from a symmetrical triangle, EDC also looks like it is forming a bullish ascending triangle formation. A break of 5.2 to 5.3 will confirm this. Symmetrical triangle target is at 5.8 while its ascending triangle points to a target of 6.2. 

Looking at a longer term chart, you can see that EDC's uptrend is intact. Based on support and resistance lines of its upward channel, we can expect resistance at 5.6 and 6.2, which is close to our expected targets. EDC has an all time high of 6.2. Breach that level, and I think we can see a similar move to those stocks which have made their all time highs recently like DMC, URC, AP and AEV. 

Recommendation: Buy

By the way, I'm bullish on the other Lopez stocks as well, namely, FPH and FGEN. You can find my analysis on FPH on the Stock Picks links section at the right. As for FGEN, it is bullishly consolidating at its highs with support and resistance at 10.5 and 11 to 11.25, respectively.