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    Stocks are bought on expectations, not facts.

Yikes!

There were a lot of inverted hammers and dojis today and I haven't even started to count the long black candles yet. Hay! We were up around 18 points near the start of trading but we corrected soon after with only a shallow mid-day rally. We really are negatively correlated with the Dow! Hmm.. I'm bullish on the Dow, so what does that mean for our market? For our market's sake, I hope my reading on the Dow is wrong. :P 

In the chart below, we can see that the head and shoulder pattern people were so scared of failed when the Dow broke above its downward trend line this September. Usually, failed bearish patterns are very strong bullish continuation patterns. Focus your attention now to the wide trading range that started mid-June until today, then to the narrower and sharper uptrend this September. This should emphasize resistance at current levels. I can see two scenarios: an acceleration to the upside or a retest of the new support at 10,400 (downtrend line starting late April) or at least 10,640. In my opinion, the Dow should have followed through on its gains last September 24. The fact that it didn't is a bit worrying for me. 



I was talking with another trader about the Dow. He showed me a survey asking what people thought of the Dow, is it headed higher or lower? Around 70% answered "higher". This is from the same group that released a survey earlier on, around late last August, that asked "What will the Dow will reach first? 9,000 or 11,000?" Majority were bearish, answering "9,000". The market formed a bottom then and rallied to current levels. Contrarian! So, what does this say? If we go against the crowd, we can say that the Dow is headed downward. In this case, we might actually see a retest of support rather than an acceleration to the upside. My trader friend was shaking his head and said he doesn't expect support from the Dow. Since prices are currently high, the resulting bearish Dow movement may influence investors in our market to sell. Of course, we were just discussing the possibilities. We'll just have to see. 

Wait, wait, wait... I'm deviating! We don't trade the Dow! Back to the PSE! I haven't finished looking though everything yet but I did notice some pretty interesting stocks today: MWC and MER. Waaah! MWC!! Melvin gave me a heads up on that last week. I bought this issue the same day I bought ALI. Like I said, I was lacking in resolve so I sold the next day! *grumble*grumble* Retest of all time high of 19.25, coming!! :P I bought some ALI today too. I'm a bit bullish on ICT and FPH as long as support holds. 


BTW, got any questions? Feel free to ask me about Philippine stocks or whatever that has a chart. :-) I'd be happy to help. You can comment here or post it in the guestbook.  


Fickle Tickle Pickle

I wasn't able to watch the market as much as I'm used to today. I was taking care of some documents and I'm in transition! 

Anyway, the market has, once again, proven how fickle it can be. Yesterday, the flavor of the day was ENERGY (particularly EDC and FGEN)! Today...not so much. Sure, EDC went up but FGEN was sold down instead. Argh! I really don't like FGEN... Never again... :P 

Today's "power" issues were cement companies like RCM, CMT, and HLCM. Nice long white candles! Like I said yesterday, I was happy with the "lightweight" portion of my portfolio. It contains HLCM. :) Mmm... I can't find a song that I could possibly twist to fit HLCM. Maybe an acronym? Nah, nakakahiya ung lame acronyms ko. Nevermind. Hahaha! 

I noticed something today...a possible shift of play to the property sector. Seems logical too since cement is integral in the construction of condos/other buildings. So..after cement, property or vice versa!! Hihihi! Kidding aside, MEG formed a bearish engulfing yesterday right? Today, it looked like it has formed a bottom at 2.25. ALI is itching to break above 17.80. FLI is still consolidating within a range between 1.37 and 1.48. Personally, I like ALI. Last week, I bought at 17.26. I sold at 17.20. I was lacking in resolve back then. :-P BTW, ALI is just a few pesos away from its all-time high of 19.25. :) 

First Philippine Holdings Corporation (FPH)

As of today's trading, FPH looks poised to accelerate to the upside. Notice that FPH is no longer trading within the (blue) channel but within the new (red) channel, which has a steeper slope. Last Friday, FPH tested its support at 67. Today, it bounced off that low. FPH may retest its previous high of 72 in the next couple days. A break above this level should lead us to an initial target of 75. 


50-50

All day long I heard a little bird say, "Power to the people!" and "More energy mas happy!" That same bird was also whispering a shift in play from mining to power. True enough, LC, PX, AT and MA were devastatingly down today while EDC crossed a new high and FGEN looks poised to break above its prior high of 14.18. Another spectacular issue today was JGS. On the other hand, issues like DGTL, PNB, and RCB were kinda depressing since they formed dark cloud covers, and MEG, a bearish engulfing pattern. 

This morning, I didn't know what to feel. Now that I think about it, I think I'm dissatisfied with my current portfolio. Over the weekend, I decided to buy LPZ instead of more EDC. The Lopezes comprise of 25% of my total portfolio. I also decided to allocate another 25% to mining. 10% is already on PX and I'm not satisfied with my entry. Now I'm forced to go long. I haven't done that in a while. Hmm... I was careless. How could I have let this happen?! Tsk. My conflict is...I'm generally bullish about it. Even so, I should have still set a stop at yesterday's close. Now I have to bear with the volatility. Should I say hello to 14 pesos? I think I have to get ready... :-S

I'm also growing impatient with my other position, which holds 30% of my current portfolio. I hope it's worth it!! Well, if you do the math, the figures don't sum up to 100%. Around 27% is allocated to my "lightweights" (consider the balance as my cash position). These lightweights are illiquid issues that may easily be driven up if and when their respective jockeys decide to do so. Hihi! Of all my holdings, I like my lightweight stock selection the most but I can't load up on them because I know I'd have a hard time getting out. 

Thanks, Lolo!

MA MA, I love you. 
MA MA, I care. 
MA MA, I love you. 
MA MA, you're my friend. 
You're my friend. 

Missed Profits of a Novice Trader

I missed the ride in LC after holding it for more than a year with an average of .24 and holding a million shares. I sold it a month ago thinking that no move is going to happen soon. Shouldn't get affected with this opportunity loss but I can't help missing that quarter million profit. And should have been my jackpot for this year! Waaaaaaa! Congrats to my sister for being so patient with hers!

Another thing I missed is DGTL that gapped up today. I bought at 1.57 then I sold at 1.52 thinking that the buy signal I got was a false one. I violated my system since my stop level was at 1.36. Mr. Market wanted to punish me for doing so! :)

DGTL broke out its 55-day high today and might start to trend up in the medium term.

Lesson learned: STICK TO YOUR SYSTEM! :)

On the positive note, my CPM looks good to trend up further.

My AT is perfect and my LPZ is still trending up!

Summary of signals generated on my system for the week:

AP - Sell (10-day low break)
BPI - Sell (10-day low break)
DGTL - Buy (20-day and 55-day breakout)

So how about you? What're your most frustrating missed opportunities? What did you do about it?

Etta James

AT LASt, my love has come along
My lonely days are over
And life is like a song
Oh, yeah, AT LASt
The skies above are blue
My heart was wrapped up in clovers
The night I looked at you
I found a dream that I could speak to
A dream that I can call my own
I found a thrill to rest my cheek to
A thrill that I have never known
Oh, yeah when you smile, you smile
Oh, and then the spell was cast
And here we are in heaven
For you are mine
AT LASt! 

Robinsons Land Corporation

I have been accumulating Robinsons Land Corporation (RLC) since the start of September. I believe that RLC will be the next property stock to go up since its fundamentals are well intact and its chart has been looking more and more attractive for each trading day that passes.

Fundamentals

Robinsons Land Corporation (RLC) has one the highest Return on Equity (ROE) and Return on Assets (ROA) in the property sector. Its Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is also the most attractive based on 2011 Earnings per Share (EPS).

The upcoming REIT law should also be taken into consideration because according to Citiseconline.com, the value of RLC could be unlocked through this investment vehicle since most of its assets (60%) could be spinned off into one.

If one looks at the Bloomberg Terminal, based on September 16, 2010, RLC has a "Buy" tag from 100% of the analysts that covered this stock. These are Kabigting from UBS, Laneda from Citiseconline, Velasco from Phil Equity partners, Puig from Kim Eng Sec, Balita from SB Equities, Lopez from JP Morgan, and Alex Pomento from Macquarie.

Technicals

On the technical side, I can see from RLC's weekly chart that the down trend ceased during the first quarter and has continued to retrace above its 38.2% and 50% retracement levels.

With solid fundamentals, good prospects for the future, and a more aggressive project launches this quarter, I believe that it is just a matter of time before this baby breaks out of its current resistance at 16. (By the way, do you see a cup and handle in the works here?) ;)

Holcim Philippines, Inc. (HLCM)

Interesting setup. 

Bullishly consolidating at its highs
2007 high of 9.20
Current range: 8.70 to 9.25

Looks poised to break above 9.25. 

Buy if breakout. 

Metro Pacific Investments Corporation (MPI)

I think my entry here two days ago was a little early as it formed a black candle the next day. Yesterday, MPI looked like it would retest its support at 3.55 and today, it did. However, instead of breaking below this support as I expected, it bounced from it. This confirms that the buy signal I saw two days earlier was correct but just a little advanced. Before I proceed, let me explain the range you see in the chart below. Key price points are 3.55, 3.75 and 3.94. I know they're narrow but they should help intraday. The midpoint, 3.75, should determine where MPI is headed. A break above 3.75 suggests that MPI is headed higher to 3.94 but if it fails to do so, then back to 3.55. 

Given its move today, I expect MPI to retest 3.75 tomorrow. Next resistance may be found at 3.94. Ability to break above 3.94 should tell us that MPI will be resuming its uptrend with a target of 4.20 / 4.33. However, if its resistance holds, we can assume will be continuing its consolidation, thereby headed back down to support levels 3.75 / 3.55.  




By the way, I'm not sure if it's just me but I'm not feeling the strength in other issues aside from mining. Sure, there are exceptional ones but that's just around one stock per sector. So, I'd watch these resistances very closely. :)

Mine! Mine!! MINE!!!

The play has definitely shifted to mining. Sure, there were some non-mining issues that performed spectacularly today, like PNB, RCB, and SMDC but the sectors that had the most gainers was the mining sector. In fact, all the other sectoral indices were in the red while the Mining and Oil index formed a very bullish hammer. I don't know if I have a selective vision but from the way I saw it this morning, PX lead the rally. After it rallied from a low of 14.48, I suddenly noticed all the other issues rally too. 

PX was my frustration for the day. I don't know why I hesitated to buy it up. I was watching it the whole morning, waiting for that bounce but when it finally did, I didn't even notice it. I rely too much on the charts provided by Citiseconline. :( There has been something wrong with their intraday data the past few days so I didn't see PX bounce. T_T

What I did get to buy was AT. They usually go hand in hand so when PX bounced, I placed my money in AT. It bounced too and even closed the day with a bullish hammer. AT came from a low of 14.30 and closed at 15.04, while PX low was at 14.48 and closed at 15.98. So, on AT vs. PX, the definite winner for the day is PX.

The most spectacular issue today was LC. What a ride! Opened at 0.38, threatened to fill the gap by reaching a low of .35 then suddenly rallied to as high as 0.425 to close the day at 0.42. Woaaaah! Congrats to all those who have LC! 

LOLO! I bought back my MA. Good luck to me!

I think my mistake is riding the "follower" and not the "leader". The song goes, "Following the leader, the leader..." right? Not "Following the follower, the follower..." Anyway, my mentor on short-term trading taught me to go with the stronger stock and not the one that is affected by its strength. But what can I do? I couldn't make my move on the two leaders, PX and LC so I went with AT and MA. My only consolation is the possibility that AT will pick up the pace when PX slows down. That's what happened before. AT was the leader then but was overtaken by PX. Now PX is the leader. Umm.. GO AT!! Haha! As for LC and MA, I really don't know. I'll just cheer for my MA and hope it fulfills its potential. Then again, I'm happy even if it just breaks 0.25 for now. :)

Breakeven Day

The PHISIX closed another day higher (+34 points). If you didn't watch the market today, you would probably think that the market is so strong and unstoppable. Sure, that is true, but unfortunately, not today. We were up as much as 72 points during the first thirty minutes of trading. When the market started to correct, I thought there should be a bounce somewhere, so I held my ground. I didn't expect that the market will drift lower from there. 

See, yesterday, the PHISIX broke above its flag formation so I expected we'd have enough momentum to last us a few more days. Today, however, prices seemed exhausted. With the Dow up 145 points, several stocks gapped up. Gains weren't sustained and gaps were filled. To be on the safe side, I sold most of the issues I bought yesterday. My entry prices were kinda high so I found it prudent to sell. 

Let me get ahead of the market a little bit. Is the correction here, or at least, coming? I have been waiting for that correction and it never came, only today, when I became so bullish yesterday, seeing the flag breakout. If the index falls below 4,020, then the index will have formed a bull trap. 

Several issues like CHIB, LPZ, MWC, BDO, and MER seemed unaffected with the intraday correction, while the darling of the day was ACR. 



Me of Little Faith

Whatta market! This is the time when you should forget about having a cash position. Buy something! Haha! Well, at least, that's my game plan (although I think it should be noted that I have several game plans. :-P This is just one of them). I constantly shift from one stock to another. Just today, I sold most of my mining issues to buy MEG, FGEN and MPI. Most issues today were actually a buy, being on their first day up. 

Waah! So many issues, so little capital! I want  a certain mining company, property company, 2 particular banks in my portfolio!  But I'm having a hard time "settling down" or taking a position (medium term hold) when momentum is definitely in the market. 

Remember I mentioned I bought another mining stock last week? That was APX. Over the weekend though, I was thinking about my trading strategy. I realized that APX does not fall under that particular strategy so I decided to sell APX at whatever price above cost. I guess I should have waited a little more. I sold at 3.75 to3.79. APX went to as high as 4.20 today! Oh, wow! :) Me of little faith! :-P

BTW, I heard there were a lot of crosses on PIP today. It went down big time last Friday. I'm inclined to think 2.80 is the bottom already. But given my history on PIP, all I can say is... Whatever! Hahaha! Bitter much? To tell you the truth, PIP and EEI have been on my watch list for the longest time. Unfortunately, I can never seem to catch them. :-P 





Trend Following our Market

Last thursday, I've finally setup my Amibroker to give me signals based on the turtle rules. I also set it up to automatically display confirmed harmonic patterns. Harmonic patterns tend to give reversal signals earlier than the turtle rules. And yes, I'm a newbie on using the turtle rules but my backtesting make me want to use this system going forward! :)

Based on this trend following approach, most issues in the market are still a "hold". As long as the trend continues, it is going to be your friend. Never try to predict tops but always take caution. PSEi also has a bull flag which can push our index higher this week.

Here are some buy signals:

PX - 20-day high breakout last 8/31.
PX - 55-day high breakout buy last Friday. This proves that PX is going to trend up further in the medium term.







CPM - Wants to join the AT/PX, LC/MA mining moves :) It's a 20-day high breakout. Also has a confirmed bullish extended AB=CD reversal pattern.
Either this trends further or moves sideways. Place your bets!









MA also showed a buy signal but I'm not comfortable with LOLO issues and it can't use the turtle rules because of its low ATR.
Good luck!


By the way, if you have an extra ticket for the COL event on Sept 29. Akin na lang! :) Thanks!

Go, Mining!

I made several mistakes this week. First, I bought APC at 0.76 two days ago. Unfortunately, it didn't continue its run and formed a dark cloud cover the next day. I was lucky enough to have been able to sell at the same price yesterday as APC closed at 0.74. Second, I was able to buy LND at 0.78 and 0.80, and 0.81 but I didn't sell at my initial target of 0.86. I sold too late at 0.81 and even 0.79 and 0.80 yesterday. I'm still deciding whether my buying of MA at 0.022 was a mistake or not.  Although I'm bullish on MA, I think my entry price could have been lower. I guess I'll find out on Monday. And finally, the biggest disaster of the week was when I decided to buy PIP on the spur of the moment. As if that wasn't bad enough, I felt so pressured with PIP that I also decided to sell some AT at 13.98. 

Hindi na ako iinom ng PEPSI!! Hahaha!

Realizations:
1. In playing stocks like APC and LND, I have to be faster than ever. I can't just sit there and watch like I do with my blue chips. Survival is primary. To profit is secondary. 
2. I cannot take on unplanned trades. Sure, that sounds like a no brainer but when you watch the ticker every second, it's hard not to be attracted to momentum. Basura momentum play is certainly different from the momentum of blue chips and/or second liners that I'm used to playing. 

I've been careless lately. I need to change that. Thank you, Market, for showing me what I've been doing wrong. 

Anyway, enough about the negatives. Today was a rather good day, especially to one of the brokers in the office. She was cheering the whole morning. She had four of the biggest gainers for the day: AGI, PX, PNB, and something else... :-P I was quite pleased with my AT and PX too. Do I see 16, coming? Hihihi! 

LC was also quite spectacular today. I expected further correction but the fact that it didn't was a very bullish signal for me. I didn't get to buy though because I noticed it too late and I didn't want to buy up. So, when I saw MA start to move, I bought that instead. Hahaha! I bought another mining stock too. Hihi! 

Be careful what you wish for because you just might get it...

So, what did I do today? Just when I thought that this Friday was not going to be that exciting... (Mahirap talagang magsalita ng patapos! Hehe!) We've always heard of the saying, "Be careful what you wish for because you just might get it".  Well, this morning I wished for something exciting. And yes, for the 1st half of the trading, I was seeing red for my stock picks! *cough EDC and LND*

Then I noticed:
A. Foreign firms seemed to be buying AGI
B. AGI didn’t go down that much as compared to the other stocks.

So, I decided to make my chuchu trade again and entered AGI as close to the opening price today. HIHI! :) Now, I'm looking at AGI's chart and yesss, it's AGI, I'm in love!! HAHAHA! (I will update this post in a while and post AGI's chart.  Promise.)

What do you think?? Hmm...I'd love to hear your thoughts on this, guys?

BTW, remember Trader LIZA? She sold her APC and joined TEAM LND last Wednesday. She was able to day trade it. CONGRATS! =D

Welcome to Basura Wonderland

(Late post for September 16, 2010)

The wonderland actually opened yesterday with SPH as the opening act. Today, we were greeted with a broader based basura rally. The market just opened and I already saw the likes of PAX, IP, EG, running across the tape. Some opened higher but not all gains were sustained. NI reached a high of 3.45 but closed at 3.37; LND high of 0.87, closed at 0.82; SPH high of 3.10, closed at 2.75. Yikes! Biggest gainers were ELI, GEO, SUN and POPI (in no particular order). 

There were actually some spectacular moves on non-basura stocks too: AP was able to rebound from its low of 21.35; FPH broke above its previous high of 67.7 to close the day at 59; UBP accelerated to the upside, gaining a 2.50 peso gain; MER extended its uptrend to close at 212; and oh, SM spiked to 550! 

Hmm... I'm kind of in a dilemma. I don't really like playing with basura stocks but at the same time, I don't feel comfortable in buying my favorite issues at current levels. The last time I played basura issues, I was just about breakeven for several months. Hmmm... Why is it that I can tsupita the likes of MBT, DMC, and AP but I can't play CYBR, LND, APC properly? 

RFM Corporation


Bear trap? Trade the range but buy back if breakout.


Support: 1.83
Resistance: 2

Basura Wonderland - ISM


Potential flag formation in the works. Buy if breakout.


Support: 0.044
Resistance: 0.047
Target: 0.53 to 0.55

Basura Wonderland - GEO



GEO is still moving sideways. Be mindful of resistances at: 0.73, 0.76, and 0.81. Based on NI and SPH's move today, watch out  for some selling pressure tomorrow.

Empire East Land Holdings, Inc. (ELI)


I posted the weekly chart because it's difficult to see major resistances in the daily chart. Resistances are as follows: 0.67, 0.69, and 0.75. 

China Banking Corporation (CHIB)

Position Trade Idea

Long Term: Trying to bottom out at current levels.

Support: 394 / 403
Resistance: 430 / 477.5
Target: 530 to 550


Short-term: Moving sideways to up 

Support: 405
Resistance: 409 / 412
Target: 423



Aboitiz Power Corp. (AP)


Buyback but watch resistance at 22.20. It should break in the next couple of days to confirm the continuation of its uptrend.

Support: 21.35
Resistance: 22.20
Target: 23 to 23.50 / 25

Petron Corporation (PCOR)


At current levels, PCOR looks poised to break above its resistance of 6.90. In the chart below, we can see that its uptrend has accelerated upon the formation of a bullish higher low at 6.20. A break above 6.90 should confirm this. Upward channel points to a target of 8 pesos. Buy if breakout.


Caveat!

Lepanto Cons. Mining Co. (LC)

Nice move today, LC! 15% gain! Drool... Anyway, in the short-term, I think we all know that it is trending up. In a longer term view, we can see that it is still moving sideways with resistance at 0.32. A break above this resistance should confirm that LC will be resuming its uptrend with a channel resistance / target of 0.45 to 0.50. Caveat!



APC Group, Inc. (APC)

Race to 1 peso: LND vs. APC

As of today's trading, APC is definitely lagging behind LND. If you compare LND and APC, APC today is like LND yesterday. (Click here if you want to see the chart of LND yesterday. Take note that LND broke out today.) 



Buy if breakout above 0.73.

Support: 0.66
Resistance: 0.73 / 0.80 
Target: 0.89 / 1

Caveat!

Atlas Cons. Mining and Dev't Corp.( AT)


I would like to share my earnings analysis for Atlas Consolidated Mining and Development Corporation that I did last July to all the readers of this blog.

First Half Performance

For the first half of 2010, AT had a total of 9 Shipments of Copper Concentrates with an average of 5,384.61 WMT containing 28.51% copper. These shipments also have an average of 3.1 grams of Gold/ dmt and 26.138g/dmt of silver.

Copper Sales for the first semester amounted to a total of $89.16 Million or PHP 4.1 Billion. Take note that the total copper sales for the first half of 2009 is only P4.3 Billion. It seems that AT is on track to meets its target of having 20 shipments for the year that amounts to around P9.5 Billion in copper sales.


Copper Price

We need to looke closely at the price of copper because copper prices provide us a glimpse on how global economy is doing. The metal is used widely in construction, automotive, electronics and a myriad of industries. Year-to-date it is 32% higher than the average price of copper in 2009. Average price of copper in 2009 is $5396, while 2010 YTD is $7128.

We also need to look at how the economy of China and India is doing in order to see the outlook of copper prices in the future. An excerpt from Money Morning Magazine reads:
China and the rest of Asia remain very strong. China's numbers reveal that it is still in risk of overheating its economy, despite the measures it has taken to avoid this. Very strong trade surpluses, despite the recent financial turmoil and European distress, strongly point to the fact that China needs to do a lot more to "flexibilize" its currency and let it appreciate. A more-flexible approach would be beneficial, since it would achieve a more balanced growth, relying less on exports and increasingly in the purchasing power of its own consumers. As an example, the trade deficit excluding oil for the U.S. economy narrowed with every country except for China.
Now, should China gradually make the currency changes that I expect - as Brazil and Mexico have done for a long time - the Asian giant would benefit from an immediate easing of its internal inflationary pressures, while at the same time increasing the purchasing power of China's consumers.
This, in turn, would help support the global economy, balancing China's growth, and stoking its demand. The global commodity and exporting sectors would benefit from that heightened demand.
India's economy is set to accelerate into the second half of the year and beyond, and is stimulating lending. And Brazil's economy has been - and will continue to be - able to post accelerated rates of growth this year. It will grow at a 7.5% pace this year, with the rate moderating to 5% next year.
This environment is the ideal scenario for commodities.

Projection Figures (Please click on the image above)

In my projection figures (copper sales only), if AT were to reach its target of 20 shipments for the year, Copper sales would amount to a whopping $208.5Million or around PHP9.5 Billion. Using the first quarter net profit margin of 7.44%, net profit would equal to around $15.5 Million or PHP710 Million. An improvement from the PHP2.7 Billion net loss last year.

This will translate to around 0.677 EPS for FY2010.

Conclusion

Atlas Consolidated Mining and Development Corporation is about to have a turn-around performance this year. It has already completed 9 shipments of copper concentrates in the first half of 2010 and is on its way to meet its 20 shipment-target for the year.

My "Cheap" Thrill

I was just thinking about posting something about LND. What are the odds that Christina Hunt will be posting something about LND too. :) Well if you've read Christina Hunt's previous post regarding my short-term endeavors, LND was one of the chuchu trades I did during the past few days.

Well, what made me buy LND? I was actually looking for a cheap stock (less than 2 pesos) for my short-term experiment a.k.a "my cheap thrill". When I looked at LND's chart last August 31, I saw that LND was a possible candidate for my chuchu trade given that there was heavy volume and it was the 1st day up.

The next day, I was hesitant to proceed with my chuchu trade idea but I decided to proceed anyway. That's why I got the issue at 0.56 and luckily, got out at the highs! Then last September 8, I checked LND's chart again and lo and behold, another long white candle, which was the same chuchu indicator I used for LND :)) So the next day, I bought LND again at 0.65 and sold at 0.70!

On a lighter note, I made a bet with Trader LIZA (a trader and a friend from another brokerage firm) that my LND would soon overtake her APC. The time I made this bet, LND and APC were both doing at 0.70. HAHA So, there! I have yet to see LND's move later to confirm if I really won the bet. *crosses fingers for a breakout*.

Goodluck to all of us later :)


Fil-Estate Land, Inc. (LND)


Buy if breakout.


Caveat!

Déjà Vu?


Was MEG's move today a foreshadowing of future price action? :-P

Ready, Get Set...


What do you think? Can we finally give it another try? :-P

Race to 15

During the first thirty minutes of trading, the PHISIX was on the green side, rising 38 points at the most. Our gains weren't sustained though, as we slowly drifted lower until we accelerated to the downside, falling as much as 47 points. We were able to rally by close to end the day down by only 4 points. Value turnover remain at 8B with foreign funds still net buyers today by 1.5B. 

As planned, I sold my AP and SCC today. I also had a GTC sell posting on EEI at 4.15, which got hit at the opening. (I think I was the first one sold for the day). I decided to buy PX when AT went berserk. I also bought more TEL. No selling below...3,000?! Hahaha!  

The highlight of the day was AT and FGEN. Notice, their prices are close to each other. My trader seatmate and I were saying that they're on a race to 15. He day traded AT and took a position in FGEN. I stuck with AT, so now, the race begins! My bet is on AT because unlike FGEN, AT only made its first big move today. FGEN has been taking wild leaps for three days already. Anyway, sometime after the race to 15 has been established, a new contender showed itself. PX! It did so by rallying to as high as 12.76. It has yet to convincingly break above 12.70 but the setup looks promising. Shall I see you at 13 tomorrow, PX? 

By the way, meet BJ. He'll be posting some stock picks in a while. :) 

Patience is a virtue BUT time is gold...

This will be my first post here in Christina Hunt's blog :) (haha so please be kind to me). For my trading style: I'm trying to be both a position and short-term trader! That's why the first thing that came to my mind was EDC!

We've always heard of the saying "Patience is a Virtue" and I guess this saying is just perfect for my FORCED to GO LONG strategy. The downside though was that I wasn't able to trade that much since I was stuck with EDC back then. That's why it has always been an inside joke for me and my friends that indeed, patience is a virtue but time is gold as well :)

Yes I was one of those "lucky" people who bought EDC at 5.30 last May! HAHA and since cutting loss wasn't my thing back then, I was FORCED to GO LONG and even average down on EDC. Yes, I can say that I have been with EDC through thick and thin *cough* remeber EDC during its 4.30s?? And since then I have been patiently waiting for the day when it would break 5.30. A friend of mine even said "BUTI NASISIKMURA MO PA ANG EDC". September 9, 2010 to be exact that was the day which made me sing hallelujah! Me and another trader from my current office was then cheering for EDC (our cost on EDC was above 5), so you could only imagine the noise we were making when EDC went above 5.30! I know my FORCED to GO LONG strategy is BS so right now I'm learning to create a stop loss for myself already! hehehe

Since I have gone long with EDC I want to try my short term endeavor on it as well. For 2 days already EDC's low has been at 5.30 ;) HAHAHA sooooo, I guess you already know where I'll be experimenting for the next few days...

BTW I do look at charts but hehe I rely on Christina Hunt's TA expertise :) seriously! She's my master and she's the goddess of the charts :)

HAHA so there! So much for my usual babbling :) Goodluck to all of us!


Jollibee Foods Corporation (JFC)

Breakout? 

In the chart below, we can see that JFC has broken above its resistance line...BUT, it's not convincing yet. In situations like these, I think the only thing we're waiting for is momentum to break its prior high of 88.25. If we follow the (red) trendline, JFC is scheduled to go up tomorrow (Haha! The schedule may change though. :-P) If it does, then I'm looking at an upside target of 92. A long white or black candle should confirm or refute this trade idea. I will be bullish as long as support of 85.40 holds. Caveat!

On Taking Sides...

I was rather surprised with the performance of the market today. Since the market was just forced closed last Thursday, I was expecting SMPH, GLO, ALI, etc. to return to their normal prices so, we would gap down at the open. I guess the positive close of the Dow last week plus Dow futures up around 70 points the whole morning got the bulls fired up. I wonder what will happen if Dow closes on the red, instead, tonight? Hihihi! But then again, you can always argue that we've decoupled! :-P Anyway, our value turnover today was a spectacular 8.01B. Wow! 

Did the infamous Daiwa force close any issue today? I actually didn't notice because the whole market was going up.  But I think they didn't today as I didn't notice any "jump". Maybe they supported it but they didn't push it up by the close. Maybe they've satisfied all their buying before the close already? Haha!  Foreign funds continue to be net buyers today by about 2B.

When the market opened, I was seriously and utterly confused. Some of my positions went up and I wasn't entirely sure what I should do: stick to my target or sell while they're still going up? Thing is, I didn't want to sell because when I sell, I don't know where to shift to. Everything went up already. Finally, I came up with a comprise. I sold a fraction of my shares just to secure profits. This goes for AP and SCC. Then there were others that I sold, like PAX and PIP, simply because I was uncomfortable with them. I had a eureka moment soon after. I bought AT and TEL... near their intraday highs. Hahaha! I bought them anyway because I like their upside. I think I'll be selling all my AP and SCC tomorrow... 

FLI, MEG, and PSE were the highlight of the day. I just closed my eyes. I don't have those issues. There were several other stocks that moved fantastically today. I couldn't help but feel a little bit down because none of my stocks went berserk today. All in due time... ;) 

Anyway, I overheard a conversation today. Client X is talking with his Broker Y. Apparently, Client X wants to buy a certain issue but that issue has actually gone up quite significantly during the past few days. Being the prophet of doom (just a little nickname we have for him), Broker Y told his client why he didn't want to buy today. He gave reasons such as the market is overheated and it may correct anytime soon. Another Broker Z, who was just beside Broker Y, couldn't help but interrupt the conversation to say something on the the contrary. "Client X, short-term traders are all looking at a peak, so they are all looking to take profits. That's our cue to buy!" I believe what she's trying to say is that fear fuels the bull market. The more people are afraid, the earlier they take profits but in the end, buy back higher, thus fueling the uptrend. So, who will you side with? :-P 


The "It" Crowd

I thought it would be interesting to receive inputs from other traders aside from myself. So, I asked some of my friends if they would like to contribute their thoughts on the market. So far, Amorito Girl has accepted my request. Val10ai, on the other hand, was non-committal in being a writer but has agreed to become the editor of this blog. 

Just a little introduction: Amorito Girl used to trade in the same brokerage as I do. She started trading last December 2009. As for trading style, she is both a position trader and short-term trader. These days, though, she does more short-term trading and is actually quite successful in her endeavors. I think it would be very interesting to know what makes her enter and exit a certain trade. Hopefully, we will hear from her tomorrow!

Val10sai is my older sister. She is self-employed and has been trading since June 2009. She is a position trader and is a self-proclaimed authority on FPH. (Hahaha!) 

On Dreaming and TEL

Over the weekend, I had a dream. TEL went above 3,000! It was a very vivid technical dream where I see the day's candlestick expand and go beyond the 3,000 level. (This is actually how I dream about stocks.) Based on experience, when I have a very bullish dream, it's very bearish in the short-term. I had a dream on AGI, EEI and several other stocks before. I dreamed that they went up. But during the next few trading days, they went down. Out of the many times I've dreamed of stock prices going up, there was actually only one time that it came true (I forgot what stock though). Point is, the batting average of my dreams coming true is very low. Let's see if TEL will fall under the exception or the rule. 

By the way, I usually dream of stocks I have a position on but I don't have a position in TEL. I am interested in buying though but this dream made me re-think my entry price. Hahaha! 


RFM Corporation

Last Thursday, RFM broke above its pennant's resistance at 1.93. Intraday, it hesitated below 1.96, as it has done so for several times in the past. Next week though, I expect a break above 1.96 and even 2 pesos. Since the resistances are so close together, I suggest you buy as close to 1.88 as possible. I will remain bullish as long as prices hold above that level. Pennant breakout suggests a target of 2.13, while its upward channel suggests a target of 2.30. 


I plotted  the Bollinger bands on RFM with a time period of 10 days. Notice how the BBs are now contracted, which indicates that volatility has decreased but the likelihood of it increasing volatility in the short-term has increased. In short, RFM will start to trend soon soon. The fact that prices are above the 10-day moving average is bullish. 


Caveat!