Stocks are bought on expectations, not facts.


Yesterday, we saw some of the strong stocks correct back down like MEG, PNB, RCB, SECB and my current favorite, FLI. I had the mistake of listening to the voice that whispered in my ear to just be patient on FLI. It can reach 1.20 if I would just be patient, it said. I'm starting to make more mistakes nowadays. I know that when a stock accelerates to the upside, that usually indicates that the stock is nearing its peak. To be on the safe side, I should have unloaded some by the close. My "hold" strategy on FLI should have been right had I been able to sell at a price higher than last Wednesday's close of 1.05. Yesterday, FLI reached a high of 1.09 during the first twenty minutes of trading. So, the question is, was I able to sell? As you can already tell, I was not able to sell it at a price above 1.05 for reason's I believe my dad would scold me for. No, but seriously, I was not able to sell it because I came late for work. (Oh gosh, scold me now..) Then, I could have sold it at 1.05 but our internet suddenly stopped working, hence, no connection to PSE. When the computer was back and running, I could only sell FLI at 1.03. I sold my remaining shares at 1.01 and 1.02 today. I believe that was an emotional decision because think about it, if I did not have any shares of FLI and I saw it rise to 1.09, I would be on the lookout to buy. But, I will not buy unless I see a reversal or a bottoming out pattern around the 1 level. 

Anyway, I am contemplating taking a trading break. I told myself before that once I started making more mistakes, I will stop trading. I think it's about time as I have not had a break from trading for a while.

It's All Relative

Was it yesterday that I asked to be flown off to the moon? Let me just say it was a rather smooth takeoff on-board the FLI spaceship! And as I have recently discovered, you truly are in good hands with Metrobank!

Anyway, jokes aside, the Aboitizes are still at it. They never get tired now, do they? I can't seem to ride the AP-AEV wave since I'm totally uncomfortable with them at current prices. I think they're already too high. I got whipsawed a lot of times there too as they have the tendency to consolidate for so long. Now that I think of it, JGS consolidated longer than AP/AEV ever did recently but I was still able to hold JGS. I bought last June 16 but it was only today that I finally got rid of all my shares for some profit. Had I bought AP instead, I would have earned more than I did in JGS. 

I looked back on my recent failures called GMA7/GMAP and PX. I realized now what went wrong, why they didn't break out as I expected them to. It has all got to do trend. These stocks are trending down. I tried to bottom pick these stocks thinking they had no where else to go but up. As every trend follower would say, low/high is relative. Just take a look at the Aboitizes. They haven't stopped their ascent. Just when you think they're too high, they continue to form new all time highs. All I'm saying is that it's hard to guess bottoms or peaks. As long as the trend is up, you can continue to assume that the uptrend is intact unless a clear reversal proves otherwise. These reversals take some time to form so I resort to short-term indicators/formations that point to possible peaks or bottoms, but that's just what they are...short-term.

Anyway, it's clear to me now what kind of setup works well for me.  My ideal setup is a consolidation after a short-term / medium-term uptrend. Let me demonstrate: 

Vista Land  and Lifescapes, Inc. (VLL)

Agrinurture, Inc. 

Universal Robina Corporation (URC)

Let's compare these with the recent stocks I bought that are currently in a downtrend.

Philex Mining (PX)                           

Century Peak Metals (CPM)

Energy Development Corp. (EDC)

As you can see, I was able to generate more profits on stocks that were in an uptrend. Therefore, I will not bottom pick on a stock that is in a downtrend. I will try to pick relative bottoms on stocks that are in an uptrend. Lesson learned. 


Just Another Trading Day

I'm starting to get used to the new system and I think the rest of the market is too as value turnover fattened up once again with 4B worth of stocks exchanging hands today. Banks and MEG continued to be the flavor of the week but it seems the Aboitiz family wants to play catch up. AP looks poised to retest 20 while AEV, 23. Is this just a strong bounce off support or are they finally ready to break their respective resistances and trend once again?

I sold some of my JGS and GMA today and shifted to MBT. Why? Because it has already retraced from its high of 63.5. Does it look dead already? I'm betting that this one will suddenly revive when the strong banking stocks start to die. For the sake of my MBT, I hope it's soon! Mwahaha! >:) Give chance to others. Shift, people! SHIFT! :P 

Hay nako... GMA! It broke down yesterday! Apparently, I didn't sell yesterday even though it broke my intended cut loss price. Someone, flick me!! Bad trader! Bad! Haha! Well, I think my hesitation could also be attributed to my hesitation in the whole market brought about by the new system. I didn't trade yesterday and I ignored all the buy and sell signals that I saw since I was rather uncertain with the market as a whole. I decided to give it another day, which was today. Anyway, bad parin since I already had a sell signal last week but I ignored it. Anyway, I am certainly on the lookout for my ICT. I expected it to breakout yesterday but it didn't. Indicators are giving me a sell signal. I don't want this to be another boo boo like "GMA".

Hi, PAM!

Meet the new lady in the PSE! We have been anticipating her arrival since late last year but as you all know, it was only today that the new trading system was implemented. I felt the market hesitate today. That isn't surprising at all since almost everyone is still trying to get the hang of the new and more complicated system. In fact, there were several errors in the market today. A trader in my brokerage posted a buy order on AGI, only to realize he posted a sell order. Another trader was also so happy to have sold LIHC at a certain price, only to realize, he had the same buy order at the same price. Then I heard a trader from another broker sold MER at 165. I think it ought to have been a buy. Then SM opened at 357.6. Now that was a screaming buy! But honestly, it was hard to get shares even at the 400 level. Napitik lang talaga... 

I, myself, was hesitant to buy anything today because somehow, market feel was different and I had difficulty gaging the market. Market Indicators were also down. All day, the PHISIX showed a value of 3,888, and at the start of trading, our market was up 470 points! It later on changed to 13 points. PSE announced later on that the market was closed 3,414, down by 2 points. 

I don't know about you but I found today rather uneventful when it comes to stock price. Maybe, if you were able to ride RCB and MEG, your day would have been more interesting than mine. :P 

Got Milk?

You may not have noticed it but Alaska Milk Corporation (AMC) has been on an uptrend since early last year. The thing is, it is not always traded. It is also characterized by long consolidation phases, not much retracements, before continuing its uptrend. Last March or April, Trader X pointed this stock to the rest of us in the office. Ever since then, AMC has been on our stocks to watch but none of us were actually able to ride this when it started to trend again last May. A few weeks later, it started moving sideways again. The range was clear: 10 to 10.75. I thought AMC's uptrend was over when it broke below its support a few days ago but lo and behold, it was a bear trap and today, it made a strong move to the upside.

Whenever I'm in the office, I sometimes feel like I'm watching some sports game with trading as the game, the ticker as the bird's eye view of the game, and my officemates as the commentators. This morning, upon seeing the strength of AMC, Trader Y said, "Gotta buy some milk!" Trader Z then started to chant "Food! Food! Food!" His reasoning was this: when you drink something, you'd want to eat something. Then suddenly, there was a barrage of buying in Swift Foods, Inc. (SFI). He repeated, louder this time. "FOOD!!" I couldn't help but join their jolly conversation. I said, "And where will you buy your milk and food? In SM!!" Hahaha!!

SM broke above its 10 peso range today to close the day at 445. There were several crosses c/o Big Mac and Deutsche. I don't know what to make of those crosses. I was joking with another trader who bought SM the same time I did that the crosses were done so that SM's breakout would look like it was done with volume. Kidding aside, I'm actually kind of worried with SM's move. A big move on top usually indicates a peak. MBT, PNB (@ 32), and JGS all made sharp moves that looked like a breakout but was actually followed by a correction. Anyway, SM is now just 7.50 pesos away from its all time high of 452.50. I'm hoping that SM will move just like all the other all time high fliers after eradicating their previous all time highs.

Remember I currently have a bottom picking experiment under Operation Tsupita? I bought ANI last week at 16 and today, it closed at 17.25 I believe this is in expectation of the meeting on Friday. As usual, I have selling orders starting at 17.50. I failed to buy more today too. Recently, I noticed, those stocks I have little of, make up with big percentage gains, while those I have a lot of, barely move. It's a conspiracy! Haha! Anyway, I don't believe in jackpot anymore. It's okay for me to make a little here and another, there. As long as it's a profit, I'll take it. No regrets!

Something Different This Way Comes

Sorry, sorry! I haven't updated since Friday. I didn't have internet the whole weekend. Then today and yesterday, I was out most of the day. Anyway, let's talk PHISIX. We are currently in a correction mode and once again, approaching support levels. Can we hold above support at around 3,360 or will we break first before we make a quick snap back up? Our market does not exactly have the smoothest uptrend so I wouldn't be surprised if it does that. In fact, our market has done that several times already during the past three months. We can thank the Dow for that. :P 

Something different happened today. I saw some issues rise from the dead. For starters, there's PAX and IMI. IP tried to rally alongside PAX but it was met with resistance as it was sold down to close the day at 1.36 from a high of 1.44. If you want a speculative issue that hasn't gone up yet but is starting to show some spunk, IP might be a good candidate. 

Side note: I don't usually watch APX but I noticed that during the past week, it has been trading above 2.50. It hasn't done so since February of this year. 

Now, for some positionalysis... I bought more GMAP/GMA7 today. I believe that this one has already bottomed out at current levels. Also, if I play the contrarian card, a lot of people are bearish on this one already. I heard this was a buy below 6. If this is the case, then you will not be able to buy below 6! Indicators look bullish to me but I will still need to confirm tomorrow if my interpretation is right. Hahaha! Personally, I'm not scared to take a position on GMAP/GMA7 even with a weak Dow because I consider this one as part of my autistic stocks list. Last year, it even gained momentum when the market was correcting back down. I will always just take note that the current trend of GMA is down so failure to hold at current levels warrants a sell.  

I didn't do anything today besides buy more GMA. I got tempted to sell my other issues but decided to hold my ground for now. And then... that's it! (Haha!) A rather boring Tuesday morning for me but an exciting one to those who have VLL, RFM and ORE. :D 

*insert scary music here*

Hala! Dow is down 113 points as of 10:17pm. I think the little thief called Market Correction will be coming for us tomorrow. The PHISIX hesitated today. Having been up for almost two weeks now, today's doji might indicate a peak. A red Dow might be the trigger for a correction to occur.

Yesterday was a bit exciting. Sure, the market was halted for 30 minutes with no extension, but that actually triggered some sort of panic buying. Property stocks rallied and it seems, I positioned on the wrong property stock. I have a lot of RLC and I haven't sold anything yet. I swear, RLC can be so autistic sometimes! It doesn't always follow on the rallies led by ALI, MEG or FLI. Anyway, I sold half of my MEG at 1.46 before the market was halted. Too bad I cancelled my 1.50 selling. It would have been matched but that's okay. I was able to sell the other half at 1.52 today.

VLL was quite the superstar today. I was able to sell at 2.12. I still have another sell order at 2.16 but that one has not yet been matched. Let tomorrow be my lucky day! ;) VLL's upward channel points to a resistance at 2.20. I would suggest a take profits on strength as its uptrend accelerated today. A correction or a consolidation, at best may be expected in the short-term.

A few days ago, I was so worried for JGS and URC. Today though, it's obvious that my sentiments were misplaced. They didn't break down as I feared. Stay strong tomorrow, Goks!

I think I was a bit too hasty today. I bought CPM. I think I'm gonna sell same price tomorrow or sometime soon. MACD still hasn't given me the buy signal yet. I think ANI is a better buy. I also started buying PX today at 11.25. Based on my interpretation of its chart, it has bottomed out at 10.50.

Boom, Boom, Pow!

What's the psychology in the market now? I'm trying to figure out what's different this time, why the market is continuing its breakout this time and not on the other six attempts. The only thing I could think of is because after six times, market participants thought that the resistance will hold for sure, so, they sold their positions, hoping to buy back on the correction. The correction during the first week of July proved to be shallow and the PHISIX found its way back up to 3,374 and now, at 3,435. Last Friday, when the PHISIX paused around 3,400, I thought for sure, the market would retrace from there. Obviously, it made a bull flag formation instead and we see the continuation begin today. Are you jumping for joy already? I can't seem to shake the feeling that the correction will sneak up on us. :P

PNB ruled the banking sector today. RCB kind of dominated too. UBP probably got exhausted from its huge leap yesterday so it took a breather today. I expect PNB to take a break in the next few days, if not tomorrow. So, if you were able to ride the banks, took some profits already, where should you shift to? Based on today's outburst, I think the answer to that is the property sector, which has only started to move. It's a bit weird though, that the rally in property stocks wasn't sustained by the close. In the case of RLC, 323 overwhelmed the buyers at 14. VLL was not able to sustain its gains at 2.06 as it closed the day at 1.98. FLI closed two flucts lower from its high.

Somebody made a comment in the office, "Hit and run parin ang laro ngayon eh, no?" I don't totally agree with that. That may be true to some extent but I think it's still too early to say in the case of property stocks. See, they all moved so fast in an hour. ALI was actually the only one moving at first, but come 11pm, the rest of the property sector followed suit. The move was so big that in the case of FLI, MEG, VLL, I don't think you can blame people who bought at lower levels to sell near the close. If you try to look at the bigger picture though, you'd see that there is an upside in the property sector. They have been kinda sleeping during the past few weeks already. Time to wake up, sleepy heads!

Just a disclaimer, I joined in the rally in the property sector today. I was just talking to an officemate yesterday and he said the property sector looks "good to go" then suddenly today, boom! They started to move. I mentioned here yesterday too that I'm not going to play momentum but still, ended up buying property stocks today. In my defense, these stocks haven't broken above their consolidation. I bought MEG at 1.40 today, more RLC at 14, and some SMDC at 7.20. I was able to sell 1/3 of my VLL at 2.04.

Just Another Manic Monday

The banks are back! Instead of the usual BDO-MBT-SECB trio, we have the laggard PNB-RCB-UBP trio moving this time. I recall I mentioned two weeks ago that these three have similar charts. How interesting that they also gathered momentum to breakout at the same time. Of the three, I think UBP was the strongest today, followed by PNB then RCB. 

Shux, I don't have any banking "stuck"! :-P

Since I no longer play momentum stocks, I decided to just let the banks go. I prefer to anticipate a breakout rather than chase the ones that are currently "hot". One of my experiments paid off a little today. I started buying PIP last week at 2.65 in an anticipation of a breakout. I bought more today at 2.75, only to sell it one fluct later at 2.80 for some pan de sal money (meaning, less than coffee money). I actually have a GTC sell posting at 2.85 but that wasn't matched so when 333 started selling at 2.80 and the postings at 2.85 and 2.90 became more than 1M, I decided to just day trade what I bought. 

Speaking of experiments, GMAP is performing below expectations. MACD failed to cross up. I'm giving it a few more days to stabilize. If not, I'm out. 

LPZ and FPH continued to be strong today. EDC and FGEN look like they've bounce off their support at 4.65 and 9.8, respectively. Now, the question is, will they be able to gather momentum from here? If you weren't able to get LPZ or FPH, my best bet is EDC. It just needs to break above 4.80 and we may be seeing 5 again. 

Based on position (Haha!), my favorite group is the Gokongwei family: JGS, DGTL, RLC, and URC. I don't have DGTL but I believe this one has bottomed out. JGS is a bit 50-50. I don't know if its just resting before trending up again or if it will correct first. Right now, JGS looks a lot like EEI. At least two weeks ago, EEI was consolidating at its highs but last week, it broke down. So, I'm a bit worried when I think about the similarity of JGS and EEI that way. RLC is on the brink of a big move. URC, I bought today at 29. When I looked at URC's chart again though, I realized that URC has a tendency of breaking down first before continuing its trend. Hmm... :-S 

I'm also rather interested in MER, ICT and DMC as a possible bull flag is in the works. In my bottom picking stock picks, I am watching ACR and GEO. Operative word here is "watching". 


I didn't do anything last Friday. The Dow managed to advance another 100+ points last Thursday but that seemed ineffective to trigger a follow through move on the PHISIX as it slowly drifted lower from a high of +14 to close the day by -3 points. It seems like the market is hesitating again. If we are, indeed, moving within a sideways to up trend, then I think we can expect a correction next week. That may be an opportunity to buy the stocks you want but are currently too high. The PHISIX is actually trading near resistance so it wouldn't be surprising if we do correct from here. 

LPZ and FPH were the highlight of last Friday's trading. I was hoping to get some FPH at 52 last week but I wanted it to bottom out around there first before buying anything. Unfortunately for "barat" me but luckily for those who have FPH, the news about the buy-back program triggered a bounce off its support at 51.50. FPH closed the week at 55.50.

My officemate and I were talking about EEI. He also has a position on EEI so when it was sold down to 3.80, he made a comment saying that they're trying to shake out the little fishes or the weak hands. I replied jokingly, "I'm shaking! I'm shaking!" Hahaha! 

VLL finally broke above 1.92 last Friday. If you take a look at its range, its upside target of 1.98 has already been reached. But if we look at an AB=CD pattern, VLL has a potential upside of 2.16, which is the resistance of its prior consolidation. Now, I wonder if the move to 2.16 would be as smooth as VLL's climb from 1.62 to 1.90. Definitely, there are a lot of people who got stuck above 2 pesos so expect resistance around there. Let's hope that Big Mac will continue to support VLL. :) 

By the way, I went to the FM-TP meet last Friday. I don't know if I heard the speaker from First Metro right. He said "Don't" on GMAP and PIP. I almost laughed out loud as I bought these issues last week in an anticipation of a bounce, at least. The more people don't like these stocks, the more I like them. All mine!! :)) 


The first few trades under my Operation Tsupita have been a success. I bought EDC at 4.55, sold at 4.65; bought MER at 181 and 182, sold at 187 and 189; bought SCC at 85, sold at 88.5 and 94. I may not have been able to pick the highs but the good thing is, I was able to sell at a profit. I'll just work on the maximization of profits next time. It's "larong paso" time! 

Since I exited those trades already, I asked myself yesterday and today, where should I shift to next? I received a comment two days ago saying I should sell MER to buy RLC and AC. I took a look at RLC's chart and I decided it had the setup I like, this setup being a consolidation around support and looks like it is already bottoming out. The plan is, to buy at support and sell on the bounce. I bought RLC yesterday at 13.75. I also bought EEI at 3.70, bought more today at 3.75 and 3.85. I'm wondering now if my move to buy EEI at 3.85 was a good idea as 3.85 now acts as EEI's 1st resistance. In a slightly bigger picture, we can see that EEI is range trading between 3.65 to 4.10. 

My next project is PIP. I started buying today at 2.65. It's been hovering around the 2.60 to 2.70 levels for a little over a week now. Stochastics also look bullish so I took a position. In a slightly bigger picture, it has support at 2.55 and resistance at 3.05. 

MEG has been so strong lately. I didn't get to buy back my shares yet! Bummer. But anyway, I got my eye on VLL. Stochastics gave a buy signal today but it hasn't broken above its resistance of 1.92. Big Mac is still gobbling up shares at 1.88. Yey! I I bought some last week at the same price. :P 

By the way, I had a little experiment on GMAP. I bought at 6 pesos. I find GMA stocks weird, actually. They are trending down with hardly any bounce. But at 6 pesos, this is already a 50% retracement, while at 5.3, 61.8%. Let's see!! 

Operation Tsupita

These days, you can't just hit whatever moves. You have to learn how to buy low and sell high. Honestly, that is easier said than done. For the longest time, that trading strategy has always been the hardest for me. I don't like ranges, especially narrow ones. I find it difficult to let go after only a few fluctuations. However, now, I am also finding it hard to hold positions for a long time. My holding period is usually weeks to months. Now, because of my uncertainty in the market, my holding period / patience period has been demoted to days. From now on, I will only buy issues that have already retraced from their recent high and are consolidating near its support, like EDC yesterday and SCC today. :) 

I was able to buy SCC at 85 pesos. I sold half of my holdings at 88.50 and I'm hoping to sell the rest tomorrow. I actually didn't buy a lot. Although SCC went up a lot today, I still don't regret having bought just a little. I'm satisfied with a potentially small profit / loss. By the way, I also intend to lessen the frequency of my trades. I'm hoping I can raise my accuracy first. 

I also bought MER today at 181 and 182. I don't know if I should be worried or happy having MER close at 185. It was able to close at 185 because during the last few minutes of trading, there was a sudden demand and foreign brokerages started bidding MER up. What's up with that?! 

My biggest regret today was cancelling my buy order for MBT at 59. My order would have been matched and I could have been enjoying a 3 fluct gain right now. Sayang! 

Anyway, I was pleased with my performance today. I hope I can keep it up. :) 

Happy 60th!

I think I sold at the lows again! Hahaha! But to be honest, I don't regret having sold last week. We are now in the third quarter and its usually a bearish month so the odds of our market actually breaking out in this quarter may not that be that great. I'm certainly not comfortable holding a lot of positions for a very long time. Right now, I just know that I'm bullish this week. It's possible that the Dow will bounce this week. But who's waiting for the Dow?! There's no trading tonight. ;))

B-O-R-I-N-G! That was what I thought of the market during the first half of trading. Then, suddenly, AEV started the rally in the blue chips. I couldn't help but feel that I have to buy something! Of course, I returned to my old favorite, EDC. I bought at 4.55, but only just a  little. It looks like it no longer wants to fall below 4.45. I'm looking at a bounce maybe to around 4.70 to 4.80. I'm also interested in DMC, MBT and AP.

By the way, it's the birthday of my officemate today.



Abandon Ship

Hello, Breakdown! I'm not glad to see you again.

I was just saying last Thursday that the market can only go down to as low as 3,300. Yesterday, it broke below support instead of holding above it. The PHISIX closed the week at 3,290. Naturally, I liquidated around half (or maybe more) of my positions. I was already asking myself then if I was being too hasty. I just reminded myself of all the other times that I decided to hold thinking the market would bounce the next day. I ended up selling right smack at support. So, this time, I sold on the first day of breakdown. Actually, had I not allowed myself to hope, I should have sold last Thursday as it broke its support line. But I was thinking that the Dow was due for at least, a technical bounce having been down for two weeks already. I'm still convinced that the Dow will bounce soon, maybe next week, since it's starting to move sideways. Well, it's either that or another acceleration of the downtrend. I'm more inclined to think it's going to bounce because nothing goes straight down and a lot of people are so bearish already.

Right now, I'm worried for our market. The last time it broke down, it went close to 3,100. Short-term, there is support at 3,220 to 3,250. Next support may be found at 3,150. We have a huge downside.

Is it time to take a vacation? I'm seriously tired of this market. I'm close to throwing in the towel. I honestly didn't do well this year. Sideways market really is such a killer market. I'm paying the tuition fee that I didn't pay last year. And to think we're not even trending down. Gosh, I need to clean up my act and do some serious reflection! :P

Again, Again, Again

Our inability to trend can once again be linked to the vulnerability of the Dow. However, although the market closed the day with a 57 point decline, the PHISIX is still moving sideways in the short-term. For our market to remain bullish, the index can no longer fall below 3,330 at the most. Since we are moving sideways, a bounce off our current support found at the 3,300 to 3,315 levels should be expected. Inability to do so would make our market susceptible for a breakdown.

One of the downsides of buying a rational stock like MEG is that it follows the Dow. I sold the MEG I bought back at 1.40 at 1.36 today. Talk about instant losses! I still have some at a lower cost but I think I should have sold it all as it is now threatening my cost, which is 1.30 and 1.32. I'm still looking to buy back. Range breakdown suggests a downside target of 1.24 but there is also support at 1.28.

Speaking of property stocks, VLL was rather strong today. don't know whether I should be annoyed or amused because the strongest stocks in my portfolio are those I have so little shares of. VLL is one. ICT is the second. I now regret bit having the courage to buy VLL right at its support at 1.84. I don't know why I'm so uncomfortable buying at support. Anyway, there's some solid foreign buying in VLL.

I decided to do an experiment this morning. I just mentioned I was uncomfortable buying at support, right? Today, I bought CMT at 0.99. I decided to take my own advice and range trade CMT. Resistance may be found at 1.06. Waaah! Good luck to me! :P