Stocks are bought on expectations, not facts.

Window Dressing

I don't think I have ever experienced window dressing at its best. This morning's "window dressing" just felt like a more aggressive forced closing on selected issues like PX and CMT. On issues like LC and DGTL, today seemed more like a window "undressing" seeing these stocks being sold down. Less exciting closing activities came from the likes of JGS and DMC as they were just forced closed without even gobbling up the sellers! Disappointing! 

I didn't do much today. I bought back MEG that was sold at 1.42 at 1.40. I should have bought it back when I saw it find support at 1.34 but I was waiting at 1.32. I actually had a GTC buy order there but of course, it wasn't matched as 1.34 is as low as MEG could go, for now. MEG generally looks bullish so I decided to just buy it back. Good thing it was bought up by the close! ;) I also sold UBP with one fluct gain. Talk about barya... 

Asian markets are red right now. Dow futures are also down 75 points as of 4:50pm. Good thing we don't have trading tomorrow! Who would have thought Noy Noy would have such great timing? Haha! :)  

Bad Mood

It's almost funny how fast sentiment changes. Keyword: Almost. Just last Friday, I was in a sing song mood. Now... You can say I've been grumbling the whole day. 

With the Dow just marginally down, I thought we'd finally breakout today. If we were able to go up when it was down 150 points, what more on an unchanged Dow? *grumble* *grumble* The market was up almost 22 points but almost all of my stocks were unchanged or down. If it weren't for the forced closings, we ought to have closed just 4 points up or around those levels. 

My officemate was joking around this morning. Somebody was asking, "Breakout na ba?" Another trader replied by saying "Breakout" but he intentionally made his voice small. Haha! Unconvincing breakout, it is! Obviously, the "breakout" was not sustained and we closed right below resistance. 

I'm a bit worried for my all time high stocks like DMC, JGS, AP, and AEV. Before, when a stock treads on a new all time high, it is able to gain momentum and rally further. The move is fast. These days, I can't help but feel the weight of these stocks. They seem heavier now. Instead of rallying, they trade within a range. 

I completed my buy order on RCB today. I also bought back UBP at a higher price. Tsk. I had this one 41.50 a few weeks back. Cut loss at 40.50 and 41 only to buy back higher today. The question is, will it be sustained? Our market lacks continuity sometimes. 

Oh yeah, for the first time, I bought VLL. Haha! 

Even though today wasn't that great, I'm still singing. Here at SM, we got it all for you! Check this out: 

Every time SM loses its sell postings, I make sure I post a sell order at 500. See there?! That's me!! Say hi!! :D 

Stock Picks

You can download this week's stock picks here.

Let's have a great trading week!



Sing Song Mood

We all woke up to yet another 140 point decline of the Dow. On my way to work, I was already imagining the worst scenario, like my stocks breaking down alongside the index. I thought then that it was a good thing my officemate was bringing Krispy Kreme doughnuts to the office. At least, that should sweeten the horrible day that was to come. To my surprise, the market didn't panic. I was expecting some panic at the open as this is the second time that the Dow would go down by more than a hundred points. We didn't panic the first time around (two days ago) so I thought we'd panic this time. Have we come to the part where we're all numb to the volatility of the Dow? During the earlier part of trading, buyers and sellers were in a standstill until the banks started to rally. Thank you, MBT!

I finally sold all my MBT shares. I unloaded some at 59 a few days ago but held onto most. I sold all the remaining shares today at 62.50 and 63. I think it is still possible for MBT to reach my final target of 65 but for some reason, I didn't have it in me to wait for that target. Today, MBT's uptrend accelerated. That usually indicates that the uptrend is nearly over. Having suffered through 52 pesos, I was ready to exit the trade with a 6 peso gain. As they say, you're in good hands with Metrobank!

From MBT, I shifted to RCB. I haven't actually completed my buy order yet but I was able to buy today at 19.50. I started buying RCB yesterday at 19.25. The banks are in! Take your pick! ;) CHIB was fantastic too.

I had a moment of doubt on DMC this morning. I sold my remaining shares at 17.75 only to buy back half of what I sold at the same price. Fear of losing my paper profits clouded my judgment. But once I sold my shares, I had a moment of clarity and decided to buy back. It seems, DMC no longer wants to fall below 17.75. I forgot that 17.75 is the new support. There was 3M selling in 18 but DMC wasn't sold down. Instead, it was bid up. This was when I decided to buy back. I might even raise my position next week. I'm still bullish on DMC. I'm targeting 19 to 20 for this stock. I really just had a moment of doubt.

This market is so interesting!! We were able to close 18 points higher today. As for my Operation Tsupita, I think I will have to postpone this plan a bit. The blues are still at it. I can't seem to take my eyes off them to notice the faster small caps. I actually tried my hand on SPH. FAIL! I bought at 2.65 and sold most at 2.55. If I choose to, I could wait SPH out but I'm more comfortable with other issues. Let's play another time.

By the way, I'm sad for ACR. There might be a bounce play in the next few trading days given its very sharp and very fast decline. Resistance may be found at 0.86 / 0.90. If you're in for some kind of fast break, ACR might be a good candidate.

My Baby Blues

SCC was the obvious superstar for the day. Apparently, I got in the slower horse as I have a position on DMC, not SCC. Although DMC was also strong today, it didn't make a 12.5% gain. I was quite satisfied with the performance of my baby blues (my positions :P) and the PHISIX today. Dow was down 150 points but our market was only down by 8. The market actually had more activity on a down Dow than on an up day. 

CYBR-POPI woke up today. Those two aren't on my watchlist so I didn't really monitor their movement. POPI rose 22.5%. Wooow! :)) 

By the way, here at SM, we got it all for you! ;) 

Flying Blind

What exactly happened today? I'm not entirely sure since my computer was down almost the whole day. On the rare occasions that it was working, I did see the banks rally. Of course, MBT joined the fun! It even reached a high of 60 (pitik lang) to close the day at 59.50. I sold some of the shares I got two weeks ago at 57. Do you know the implications of those three words: two weeks ago? It means that I had MBT at 57 before it fell to 52. I'm just thankful to be able to exit with a profit. But as I said, I just sold some. I still have most. Hmm... I'm a bit worried for the Dow tonight.

SCC and DMC were quite the duo today. Funny, I was taking note of SCC with resistance at 78 (which also happens to be the last sale price). The computer was down again so I thought, why not write my trade idea down? It's not like I can do anything else! Haha! It had a good chart. It had been consolidating for the past two weeks. Then, the next thing I knew, 79 na ang SCC!! Whaaaat?! It closed at 80.

The One That Got Away

I certainly didn't expect ICT to reach my target so soon. I was just getting ready to buy then poof! 32 pesos na cya. Haha! See, our computers in the office kinda break down during the first few minutes of trading. Thing is, ICT had already broken above its flag's resistance by the open and was already trading at 32.50 by 9:33am. So, would I chase after it? With our computers acting up and ICT already soaring, I felt uncomfortable to chase it. But congrats to those who made money on this one! 

I had a realization today. All my current holdings are the heavyweights...the bluest of the blues. Imagine, I have SM! Haha! With the small caps and other stocks currently trading at their lows now recovering, I have decided to play some short-term games. I think it was right about this time last year that I did. These stocks bear more volatility but at least, when they spike up, they SPIKE up. Hmm... Operation Tsupita will now commence. This will take a lot of getting used to. I have been position trading for several months now. Let's bring in the excitement! ;) I'll tell update you guys about my success and failures. Haha! 

Since we're in the topic of success and failures, I failed to join the fun in SFI. But anyway, EEI almost successfully broke above its resistance today. Too bad it was closed at 4.05. I think the players of EEI took their cue from HI which reached an intraday high of 3.25. Thanks to my mentor, I was able to ride HI. 

My Top 5

Here are my five favorite charts as of last Friday's trading. If you'd notice, they don't include any mining stock. My favorites will always be blue chips / second liners. As long as they still look bullish, I will continue to focus on them. Although, I am not blind to the fact that mining stocks / third liners are starting to move. 

Click here to view/download this week's stock picks. 

I still love you, JG Summit

We had several strong moves today: DGTL, MEG, RFM, JGS, NI and surprisingly, even EDC. Let's go through them one by one. 

EDC failed to breakdown convincingly below 4.65. It went to as low as 4.55 but it was able to close at 4.75 today. MACD and stochastics look bullish in the short-term. Resistances to watch are the 4.80 and 5 level. It may continue to move sideways for now. 

DGTL was interesting. I guess everyone who wanted out on DGTL already did so yesterday. It's pretty obvious the buyers overwhelmed this one. A break above its previous high of 1.76 shouldn't be surprising, given that it is in an uptrend. Buy the dips? Support levels may be found at 1.64 and 1.58. 

MEG continued to go higher today and with heavy volume to boot. A lot of foreign buying on this one too. Personally, I will be unloading as it goes up. In fact, I sold some this morning at 1.38. I had this one even before it broke down to as low as 1.16. Of course, I'll take the opportunity to get out. But I am also waiting at lower levels...

RFM closed at the highs today. In fact, it even broke above its previous high of 1.22. Initial target of 1.28 remains.

And finally, JGS. It hesitated a bit today. It retested its support at 16 but was still able to close the day at 16.75. For me, this is a buy as long as support at 16 to 16.25 holds. Here are my targets: Range target is at 17.50, channel resistance at 18 but I wouldn't be surprised if it is able to extend to 19. 

I love you, JG Summit

I really don't like it when the Dow shocks us with a three-digit gain. Sure, a lot of issues gap up at the opening but there is no momentum intraday. Certain exceptions may be made for ICT, MEG and JGS though. It's pretty obvious which stock I bought today. Haha! I sold my DGTL for a two fluct gain. Cheap thrill, sure, but I have to admit, I had a high entry price, hence, the speedy exit. 

Hmm... Something different happened during the last 30 minutes of trading. ORE broke above its minor consolidation and GEO closed at its highs. I hesitated to buy ORE at 2.04 because it was so close to 12nn. When I was finally convinced that the "crammed" rally was real, of course, an entry at 2.08 or 2.10 was already 'alanganin'. But good job, ORE! Haha!

Chance to Buy?

I'm glad the play with my current favorites doesn't seem to be over just yet. I'm particularly happy for SM. Notable issues for the day are ICT, JGS, ANI, and MBT. Property stocks showed some signs of life today with FLI as the strongest. I wonder when construction will start moving? DMC and EEI have been consolidating, more so with EEI. I am more inclined to think a breakout shall ensue. Maybe I'm biased? On DMC, sure, but I don't have any EEI. I bought some DGTL today. First day up! 

By the way, RFM failed to follow through on its move last Friday. I wouldn't be surprised if it corrects or consolidates at current levels. 

Alliance Global Group, Inc.

(Position trade)

I'm intrigued with the potential I see in AGI. In the short-term, we see it is consolidating within a one peso range with support at 5 / 5.4 and resistance at 5.90 to 6.0. The fact that prices are consolidating in its upper range is encouraging for the bulls. Notice that for the two times that it hit 5 pesos, it did not linger in those levels long. It seems, AGI is met with buyers when it hits the 5 level. Taking a look at its weekly chart, I found that AGI, indeed, has significant support at 5 as this was its prior resistance. It tried to break above this level for four times. Only in the fourth attempt that it was successful. Seeing this, it is possible that AGI is just resting before continuing to trend up. Based on its range, a successful break above 5.9 or 6 may bring AGI to 7 pesos.

Recommendation: Buy if support holds

(AGI daily)

(AGI weekly)

RFM Corporation

(Short-term trade)

Interesting, don't you think so? RFM broke above its resistance at 1.12 last Friday on heavy volume. Naturally, you can now find support at 1.12. Its upward channel points to a resistance around the 1.30 level. If RFM has, indeed, continued its uptrend, then we may actually see RFM reach its range's target of 1.28 in the next couple of trading days. Aside from a range, we can also see an ascending triangle form in RFM. This gives us a higher potential upside of 1.44.

Recommendation: Buy the dips

A Review: Stock Picks

At the end of every week, I decided to follow up on the stock picks I had posted at the start of each week. Last week, I posted a buy the dips on URC and an avoid if breakdown on EDC. Let me start on EDC. 

EDC still managed to hold onto its support at 4.65. Notice, however, that for the past week, it has been trying to break above the 4.75 to 4.80 levels but failed. I retain my recommendation to avoid if breakdown. EDC looks very week and susceptible to breakdown. Indicators remain bearish. 

URC managed a high of 28.50 last June 4. Unfortunately, the Dow went down by 300 points that Friday. It gapped down to open at 27 the next Monday and hasn't touched 28.50 since. Should we be worried? I recall I said I would only remain bullish on URC if it is able to hold above 26.50 to 27. It fell to as low as 25 pesos last week. In my opinion, this failure to hold above the mentioned support is just an indication that URC is not ready to trend yet. URC is extending its sideways move but notice that it has been forming higher lows. Could an ascending triangle be in the works? Support of this ascending triangle is at 24.50 but to raise the likelihood of breaking above its resistance at the 28 level, it should no longer go near this support. Stochastic oscillator looks poised to cross up. 


Was the Dow really up 270 points last Friday? Probably it's the long weekend, that's why nobody didn't really want to commit to an overnight position. So, the players flocked to the likes of FDC, RFM, SFI, NRCP. 

Have a great weekend, everyone! 


I finally feel the weight of the big caps. Unable to breakout? Let's break you down!

..And the heavyweight champion is MBT!

Great rebound, though. Looks like a sideways move shall ensue on MBT but expect resistance at 55 first before it can travel back up its range to 57.50.


BTW, I think I heard a plate shatter today. Oh, wait, my bad. Plates! That was just several of my positions breaking down!


Got excited over nothing. Dow was up 123 points by the close. Thought that was what the market needed to bounce off current levels but no, we still ended the day down. The big caps and second liners were kinda dead today. I had a rather uneventful day while day traders had the time of their lives with PRIM hitting ceiling and JOH finally rising from the dead. Is it time to shift strategies? Is the basura/mining stocks finally waking up from their deep slumber? 


Here's a list of cheerworthy stocks today:


It's Too Late For A Bloody Valentine

We were down around 60 points at the open but considering the huge down of the Dow, that felt like nothing. I actually didn't feel the panic during opening. The big down can probably be attributed to the broad based gap down but individually, it wasn't as bad as most expected. We were even able to rally mid-day. However, as closing drew near, the PHISIX dipped further down to close the day at the lows, losing 90 points. A sell off probably occurred as people didn't want to hold overnight positions given Dow Futures was down 100 points. You can also blame Dow Futures for the lack of momentum the whole day. 

By the way, at market open, I checked the advancers and decliners. Can you guess the number of advancers at the start of the day? Haha! 4. LOL

Anyway, DMC announced a 0.50 cash dividend with an ex-cash date at June 17, payable on July 15, 2010. Dividend play coming? :D I'm betting on a break above 17.75.

Go, construction! :) 

Stock Picks


Check the link on the SP Section for the review. 

Perfect Timing

Will the correction come on Monday when I just bought yesterday morning? Dow is down 200+ points as of 12:30am.

Life is funny!

Game on! 


The PHISIX was unchanged today. Could it just be resting before continuing to move higher? The fact that the index remained above 3,342 is encouraging for the bulls. Now I'm thinking, which would be better for us tonight? An up or down Dow? When the Dow is up, market seems uninteresting but when the Dow is down or is unchanged, then the market is encouraging. Is everyone waiting to buy? Are you waiting to buy? I bought several issues today. That's why I said the market was encouraging. Haha! 

Remember I had two scenarios for CHIB? 

Scenario 1: Short-term peak
Scenario 2: Flag, spike, peak

I think Scenario 1 is now taking place. 

Congrats to all those who made money on ANI and DGTL! To all those still holding, fight till the end! LOL

65 Is A Magic Number

Yesterday, Dow was down 112 points but the PHISIX still managed to climb higher. Today, Dow closed with a 225 point gain. Naturally, the PHISIX shot up to close the day with a 65 point lead. Last night, I was actually hoping that the Dow would only be up by less than 100 points. The market sort of panics with such volatility. Good thing in this scenario, the panic is that of buying. But notice that it was only during the last 30 to 45 minutes of trading that the market spiked up. Prior to this, the market was boring. 

Let's take a look at individual issues. SMDC and DGTL broke out today. MER had a wild 15 peso range, intraday. JGS continued its upswing...Spectacular, as always. And PX... Hmmm.. I'm still trying to figure this one out. Strong bounce off 10.50 but has a downward trading channel resistance at 13.0. Huge volume today too. What I'd like to see PX do now is to form a higher low. Or maybe it should consolidate first to absorb all the sellers who got stuck at these levels... Hmmm... All I know is that I need more confirmation before jumping the gun. 

I may have overlooked something on CHIB. Today, obviously, it was able to hold onto its gains. Now, if it is able to hold at current levels and breakout above 475, then I think a flag formation may be in the works. The target of 500 doesn't seem impossible. If the spike to 500 is as sharp as yesterday's move, then it would be around there that is the peak of CHIB, at least in the short-term. So, I'm looking at an acceleration, almost vertical move on CHIB's part to call it a peak. If it drags to 500, then the scenario I'm looking at will not hold. 

Anyway, the index has broken above its sideway's range. A lot are pessimistic that the market will be able to continue to head higher. Although that is possible, I can't help but think this move is different. I know several position traders who were shaken out with the last bear trap and are currently liquid. If this is so, then a lot are just waiting for a dip to buy. If our market does correct in the next couple of trading days, I think we should set an expectation that the correction will be shallow and fast. During the last three attempts,  the consolidation at the highs dragged. If it drags again, people might get impatient and sell, hence vindicating the sideways trend. 


I was expecting some blood today given that the Dow was down by 112 points. The PHISIX seemed very vulnerable to a correction already with the doji it formed yesterday. Today, however, we were able to close the day at the highs with 22 points up. If we look at individual issues though, we'd see that their performance is mixed. Issues like ICT, DMC, AC, FLI, EDC, RLC were either unchanged or down. On the other hand, issues like AEV, BDO, JGS, CHIB, PNB, DGTL were able to close the day up. 

I just have to give it up to CHIB. It really is exceptional. Ever since it became part of the index, it just never looked back. In fact, it has climbed around 100 pesos ever since then. This may be attributed to the fact that CHIB isn't really that heavy. GLO is even more expensive but it has a thicker sell posting than CHIB. Funds may be wanting to add this in their portfolios so they just bid prices up. 
Aggressive Buying + Thin Sell Orders = Uptrend

I noticed something though. Today, CHIB spiked up. It also hasn't yet retraced; it may have paused, sure, but it has not yet retraced ever since May 6. A spike near the top indicates an acceleration of its uptrend, which possibly signals the end of its uptrend, at least in the short-term. I will give it one or two days to find a top. Then, I think, a correction may be due to CHIB. I think lang ha! I'm actually looking to buy this one so I'm trying to determine the right timing. Let's see if my analysis is right. If CHIB still continues to defy gravity... HANDS DOWN. Hahaha! 

There is something different with the move of DGTL. Notice before, every time it reaches 1.46, it encounters resistance and fails to close at its highs. For two days now, it has been attempting to break this resistance. Sure, it hasn't broken above this resistance yet but this time, it was able to close the day near its highs. Volume has not been this big in a long time and indicators seem to be bullish. Could a breakout be finally be happening in the next couple of days, if not tomorrow? 


Yesterday, BPC broke above its range's resistance at 3.75. Today, however, it went back below this resistance to close the day at 3.70. The way I see it, if BPC is unable to hold onto its gains, it can potentially go back down its to range's support at 3.45. Notice too that since February, BPC is respecting its upward trading channel. If it fails to continue higher in the next couple of days (to potentially follow a steeper rate of ascent), BPC may fall back near its support once again. Range and (red) channel target points to 4.05. Be mindful of BPC's resistance at 4 to 4.20. BPC has not touched that area since November of last year, at the least. What's good about BPC the past few weeks is that after a long time, it finally got some volume.


Today, the market stalled a bit but the daily chart of the PHISIX still looks bullish. Objectively speaking, the fact that the index is consolidating near its highs is good news for the bulls. But today's unchanged behavior may also indicate that everyone is waiting for the performance of the Dow tonight before buying or selling. We didn't see much momentum probably because Dow futures was down around 50 points the whole day. As if that wasn't bad enough, as of 5:37 pm, Dow futures was down 129 points. How ominous! Then again, futures has been so volatile lately; it's almost useless to look at it in the morning. We can probably only use it to gage sentiment, which has proven to be so fickle. 

I'm quite impressed with EEI (although in truth, when I saw this one being bought up, all I could think of was f*ck!! LOL. For your information, I sold my shares at a price just to breakeven). Today was the ex-cash but this one still managed to climb to as high as 3.8. Initial target of at least 4 pesos is still intact. Who would have thought that could be so depressing? (Haha!) 

URC still baffles me. I bought this one at 24.25 and sold one fluct higher just last week. Oh gosh, please don't tell me it's forming a bull flag! This is going to be the fourth time it has attempted to break its triangle's resistance line. For this one to revisit 28 in the near future, it has to be able to do so in the next couple of days to vindicate the bull flag I'm so afraid will come true. Hahaha!

Wait, wait, wait, how can I forget AGI? Fantastic!! This one is range trading with support at 5 / 5.4 and resistance at 5.9 to 6. It is now just a few fluctuations away from its two year high of 6. So, what do you think? Will this continue to move sideways or will it finally begin to trend? :D