Stocks are bought on expectations, not facts.


Chambeng, here's ICT. I'll post BPC another time.

As seen in the chart below, ICT is still in an uptrend. Now, drag your attention to the encircled portion. We can see that ICT is consolidating and is very volatile, at that.

Let's zoom in a little.

In the short-term, ICT is moving sideways to up. Notice that it was able to hold above its prior resistance at 24.5. This indicates that ICT is merely trading within a higher range with support at 24.5 and resistance at 31. We can narrow this range a little by separating its lower and upper range. Currently, ICT is in its upper range with 27.5 as support. What I like about ICT is that it formed a bullish higher low at 25.5. For ICT to revisit the 31 level, it should no longer fall below 27.50 or else we're looking at 24.50 again.

A Time to Buy

There is a time for everything and as of this morning's trading, it seems it is the time to buy. The market was down   almost the whole day with 20 points at the most. It was only during the last few minutes of trading that the market spiked up to cross the green area with 20 points. For most stocks, their correction was shallow. JGS remained the highlight of the day with RLC sharing some of the limelight.

By the way, there is no trading in the U.S. market tonight.

Risk free!

Stock Picks

Stock Picks section updated. I didn't have enough time so I only provided a short description for each stock. Correction on JGS. I wasn't able to write "high" on the last sentence. It's supposed to be previous "high" of 13.25.

Good luck on this week's trading.

On the PSEi...

Before anything else, let’s take a look at the PSEi. In the short-term, we see that the market is moving within a range. It broke below its support at 3,150 but notice the market’s strong rebound after doing so. Not only did we have two bear traps, we also have a failed bearish triple top. In the long term, the market’s uptrend’s support is still intact. Now, the question is, what will the market do next?

The Dow was down last Friday by 122 points. Also, notice that last Friday, we closed near the prior support of the market’s consolidation within its upper range. (Lower range and upper range is separated by a blue dotted line) Three times the market consolidated at its highs and three times the market failed to hold above its support. Given these, it would not be surprising if the PSEi corrects tomorrow. Now, we have to determine if the correction that would occur is just a pause before continuing toward its resistance at 3,350 or if it is the formation of bearish a lower low.

I think it useful to ask yourselves: Are you looking to buy or sell? If most people are looking to buy, then most probably, the market can still continue higher. But if it is the latter, then you can also expect the opposite outcome. I, for one, am looking to buy unless proven otherwise. Of course, failure to trend up or down will lead to an extended sideways trend.

Now That's What I Call A Rally

Market closed at the highs with 96 points up. The most notable advancer was JGS, enjoying a 1.75 peso gain. I was able to get out of my remaining positions and I am now totally liquid. I'm ready for Monday's trading with the Dow down 122 points. My strategy for the next couple of days or weeks is short-term trading The vulnerable and volatile Dow might lead to a choppy market so given the opportunity, I am more comfortable to take whatever profits I get and run. This should be a good excercise. (Haha!)

Waiting Game

The market was up the whole day but somehow, I just didn't feel it. Definitely, the market had no momentum today. From 9:30 to 11:30, the buyers seemed to be waiting for something. Like they didn't want to buy up and be aggressive until somebody does it first.

I think the most spectacular thing I saw was MER with 220 wildly buying it up. On the sell side, I think it has got to be URC. It fell four flucts during the last twenty minutes of trading. 

I take it back, said Dow.

I think the market got the Dow's message perfectly clear this morning.

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone


It's hard to remember my bullishness on the Dow (only short-term) when the Philippine market still failed to perform better than expected after the Dow's 125 point gain last Friday. In fact today, we saw some very heavy selling. We were up around 31 points in the beginning but as trading progressed, that lead went down to as low as 0.45.

I have to admit I am very frustrated right now. I think a lot of people are. Prices have gone back down to my cost making it "alanganin" to sell. Aside from that, I'm also confused. Previous analyses showed a bullish second half but now, although there has been no break down yet, people are calling the market toppish. Then again, we really can't avoid a little speculation since that is really what the market is all about. But that still doesn't change the fact that I don't know what to do.

BTW, I'm starting not to like EDC's move. A bear flag is in the works as long as it's resistance at 4.95 to 5 holds.

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Stock Picks

Stock Picks Section updated. This week, I only have one stock pick: RFM. Do check the SP section for the full analysis on the stock.

DMCI Holdings, Inc.

Probably one of the most confusing stocks around. First we see a bull trap as it broke above its resistance at 16.50, then a bear trap by breaking below 14.75. Hmm... I wonder what's next?


Do you want to ask a question, voice out an opinion or just say anything at all? This is a good place to start. Post it here! I'd would love to hear from you. 


Banking Stocks and Me

I really have such bad luck when it comes to banks. I bought CHIB and UBP for my clients. They are now above cost. I bought PNB for myself. I am now below cost! This is the great conspiracy of banking stocks against me!! (Hahaha!)

Welcome back, said the Dow.

Dow just welcomed me back last night. It closed green with 125 points. Just last night, I said, "Galit kami ni Dow dahil sinira nya bull flag ng EEI ko." It seems the Dow doesn't want to get on my bad side so lo and behold, it closed higher! (Haha!) I found a rather interesting intraday (5-minute chart) pattern on the Dow. 

See that? An inverse head and shoulder! Clear breakout during the last few minutes of trading. Just take note though, since this is an intraday pattern and not seen in the daily chart, it is not a very strong pattern. So, let's check the daily chart. Although the intraday inverse H&S is not seen, we have a clear bounce off its support. 

I believe these point to a possible rally in the next couple of trading days. Of course, these are very short-term analyses. We are still not out of the woods. We have yet to determine if this bounce that should occur soon is of the dead cat variety or if it is the continuation of the uptrend. Should these bullish signals we found on the intraday and daily charts fail, be scared! See the part I encircled in the first chart? That's a failed double bottom. We saw the Dow take a nose dive after this failed pattern. The inverse H&S is a bigger pattern so a bigger correction should ensue upon failure. Daily chart would suggest a break below support in this scenario. 


Oh gosh, the internet here is so bad.. I'm just using the Smart Bro plug in kit. Internet speed is so erratic. I don't know if it's just like this here or if it is like this even in Manila. I'm in a small town away from civilization (Haha!)

Anyway, I like what I'm seeing in the market. I recently bought some banking stocks like UBP, CHIB and PNB. I don't usually buy banks but I think I'll make an exception this time. They broke out today from a flag. A lot of stocks actually had bull flags like FPH, AP, AEV, even the PHISIX. They broke out yesterday but hesitated today. Watch 3,330 for the PSEi. That's the resistance in our sideways trend. I'm betting on a breakout. I hope I'm not wrong. 

How are your trades? I'd like to hear from you. :) 


Last night, I wrote this down, in case I had a last minute change of heart: Do NOT hesitate to SELL. Buy back on dips.

I sold today. No buying. I still have some positions, so in the event that the market continues further, I won't be left behind. But I also didn't want to regret not having sold anything today when the market was up to as high as 5%. I was given an exit, I didn't want to say tomorrow that I didn't take it. Whether it's wrong or right, I don't really know. But I told myself I would sell, that was plan, and I followed through. I'm satisfied. I sold the MEG I bought last week at 1.24 at 1.32. I cut loss on URC at 24.75. I sold all my FLI at 0.98 and .099, SMDC at 6.3, EDC at 5.5. I had one fall out though. I canceled my selling of EEI at 3.3. It could have been done. But no! I canceled it. EEI represents my confusion. I'm bullish in the medium term but the short-term is giving me a sell on rally kind of message. 

I saved another image of my screen this morning but I left the image file in my desktop! Sayang! It was so fantastic! +150 plus then my quote page was all green for a change! :) Haha! 

Bull Flag Naman!

Please? :)

Have you seen Dow Futures?

I don't mean to sound uber excited but.... 

This is the first time I've seen such a fantastic UP in Dow Futures. Because of this, it is now my wall paper. After the consecutive triple digit downs, it's about time we see something like this. Hope Dow is able to sustain this until tonights trading! 

The Great Rebound

When I woke up, the first thing my sister told me was that Dow went down 347 points. STRESS! I decided to sleep some more. As a consequence, I arrived late for work. On my way though, I was already thinking about what I would write here. I thought of one liners like "Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse, it does!". (Haha!)  

I was in the MRT, asking for market updates. A friend of mine said we were down 91 points. EDC was doing 4.95 and FLI 0.91. When I arrived in the office around 10 am, the market seemed to be rebounding. From -91, it became -78, -63 and so on, until the market was only down 13 points. 


I was able to day trade some issues. Since I was late, I wasn't really able to get any by their lows so I was content to have sold AEV and MEG with one fluct gain. I lost in EDC though. Bought at the high of 5.3. Sold at 5.2. I was also able to buy AC at 315 then sold at 322.5 and 325. Ya-ha! AC closed at 320. Marunong din pala ako magday trade! Haha! I'm not usually content with one fluct gains but given our market's condition, I'd take whatever I can. 

I think it was a good thing I arrived in the office late, because for sure, I would have panicked at the open and regretted having sold at the lows. 

By the way, I'll be out starting next Wednesday. I usually go to the Province during May and this year is no exception. So, I won't be updating the Stock Picks Section this week until the third week of May. 

Sorta, Kinda, Like

Whatever possessed I.B. Gimenez today? Sell down here. Sell down there! I saw 180 selling so many issues aggressively the whole day; FGEN, EDC, RLC, SMDC to name a few. I heard that was possibly a fund. 

I finally sold all my DMC today. Sayang ung 3 pesos. Obviously, I wasn't able to sell my remaining shares at 17.75. Sold today at 14.75. Good thing I didn't hesitate or it could have been 14.25 for me. I was able to buy a few months ago at 12.75. Sold half of that at 16.25 a few weeks ago. 

I cut loss on my ICT too. It bounced to as high as 27 but I was only able to sell at 26.5 with a two peso loss. I can't say "Argh!" enough. I better stick to the two fluct rule. That's a cut loss strategy that indicates an exit 2 flucts below cost. It's a good cut loss rule on short-term trades. Plan "deviator" kasi! :P 

Mmm.. the market kind of bounced today. We saw selected stocks bounce off yesterday's low like FLI, FPH, MBT, BPI, SECB but there were also those that just started to breakdown today like FGEN, SMDC and URC. 

Backdrop for Disaster

It's funny how the current theme/plot of the TV series that I am following is the Apocalypse, then, I see the stock market make a nose dive. It's Supernatural, by the way. Not the market. The TV series. :)



Beautiful or disastrous?

Bear Flag

Sometimes, out of curiosity and pure anxiety (Just kidding with the anxiety part. :-P ), I watch how the Dow develops. [This is made possible through] Gosh, Dow is down 221 points as of 10:46pm... At around 10pm, I didn't think this was a bear flag... More like I was hoping it wouldn't be a bear flag. But lo and behold, it is! If you base it on that, downside target or around -300. Too big though. Baka hanggang 200 points lang. Time to rally, Dow! :P 

BTW, ang ganda ng layout sa freestockcharts. Sana ganito nalang ang layout ng PAM! Hahaha!!!  


Was the Dow really up 143 points?! Could have fooled me.. :-P Funny how the PSEi doesn't want to drop when the Dow goes down big time. Then, when Dow goes up instead, PSEi still doesn't want to go up! I think a down Dow would be better for us because at least in this scenario, we rally sometime. Haha! Then again, as they say, be careful what you wish for! Just last Friday, I was talking to some officemates.

I: Up futures! 11 points.
J: No!! Let the Dow go down tonight then on Monday, rebound for Tuesday's trading.

Shux! Wish come true.

Highlight of the Day: EDC and ORE

I reiterate my buy recommendation on EDC. Buy the dips perhaps.
Write-up on EDC may be found here:

Stock Picks

Stock Picks Section updated! Stock picks for the week: PIP, MPI, PCOR.

As for PCOR, the presence of the tender offer complicates it a bit. Maybe this one will consolidate some more until the tender offer is done. What do you think? I was only reminded of the tender a few minutes before I made the write-up. I just decided to put it there since the chart looks good anyway. Haha! :-P

Dow is up 84 as of 11:35pm. Hope Dow is able to sustain its gains and that the PSEi would soon follow. My positions depend on it! (LOL)