Goodbye, ICT!

Whatta ride! Unfortunately, I parted ways with ICT today. My selling average today was about 47.8. I expected it will have another small bodied candle today but ICT sure proved me wrong. Too bad "I" couldn't "C" this one at fif"T"y. One of the reasons why I didn't buy back today was because I shifted to LR. I'm trying to keep my portfolio clean by holding only four stocks with a maximum allocation of 25% from the total portfolio. Ang hirap talaga maging balimbing! :P 

CYBoRg

A friend told me recently, "Since you have a lot of imagination to play with, I'll leave it up to you." Let me bestow you the same courtesy. I drew the lines already so that should already guide your imagination. :)) 

(Standard?) Deviations

I was chatting with my dad this afternoon. The first thing he asked me was, "Why did the market collapse today?" I laughed. Nagcorrect lang ng onti, collapse na! I guess my point is, it's still too early to say that it's a collapse. My sister was commenting on how we've become so spoiled with the 4-day woah-worthy rally that when it started to take a breather, we're suddenly so not used to it. When I came in the office this morning, I was surprised that I was surprised that the market was down around 20 points near the open. See, yesterday, I was taking note of the FB status messages of my friends. They were all excited responses to the market. I read status messages like: All in; Welcome to the 2011 Bull Market!; 7% in a day...One of those good days; Breakout day; FLI...Finally. :)) Just based on these stats alone, the contrarian in me was seriously suspicious but I disregarded that feeling. At the rate we were going, the scenario I had in mind was a fake breakout above the 4,200-4,250 resistance levels. I was expecting momentum would first slow down before we close on the red. Apparently not. It seems resistance is holding, so let's adjust expectations. Maybe a slight (or devastating?!) correction first before the eventual breakout? It's always interesting to see how prices recover after a correction, if they ever do, that is. :)) 

Today was a rather frustrating day for me. Nothing went according to plan. The biggest contributor to my frustration was LND. See, looking at the chart, it was my bottom picking bet. I refused to sell last week becuase I thought it's already near the bottom. Yesterday, I told myself that I recognize those candles... You know, the ones that look like a hybrid of an inverted hammer and a spinning top.. Check yesterday's and last Friday's candlesticks.. See, LND kept on forming relatively new highs even though it's sold down at the close. If it were bearish, it wouldn't be able to do that. But I was also a bit worried with the lack of volume. There is relatively higher volume the two times it tried to break the 2 level so when it formed a black candle intraday, I thought the bears are winning so I decided to sell. Oh boy, was I wrong. When I sold down to 1.95, I should have found it curious why the buyers suddenly appeared after I sold. Like, 700K was buying at 1.95. It was sold down a little bit after so I disregarded it and kept my posting at 1.96, 1.98 and 1.99. Slowly, my postings were hit and the buyers were toughening up. I recognized instantly that my previous analysis was sound (or at least, has yet to be refuted) and I was just chicken once again. For the third time, I bought back LND above 2 pesos. I bought it back because it reminded me so much of FLI. I got whipsawed several times there. When I finally decided not to try, it went zoom! Sheesh. KAYA KO TO! :)) It still needs to break its previous high of 2.09 though. Let's see! :) 

BTW, a friend of mine posted in FB: Will it FLI? Someone else replied: No, it will LND. Funny! :P 

Quote of the Day

"The market is on steroids again."
-Alexis Uy

Unstoppable

When I was looking at the index, the word that came to mind was Unstoppable. And no wonder, the song I was listening to goes, "Tonight make me unstoppable. I will charm, I will slice, I will dazzle, I will outshine them all." I always find it amusing when the songs I'm listening to parallel the market. :P Another favorite line during a bad market is "I'm waiting for the breakdown. Nothing feels good being under the gun. I'm waiting for the breakdown, is it ever gonna come?" I was waiting for the bus back then and this song played. And yes, I was going home after a lousy trading day. :)) Anyway, we seem to be facing better times so let's not dwell on that other favorite. Haha! 

Hmm...It seems the MEG-FLI rivalry is back. FLI is a personal favorite. It's my first 'love'. It was the first stock I ever bought and with some persistence, I was able to make a decent return out of it. After this though, I kept on telling myself that there is a reason why it's 'history'. I don't think I ever made money with FLI recently. I tried bottom picking it so many times but it found no momentum so I always ended up cutting loss. I want to congratulate my friend, PB. I heard he's been accumulating at around 1.08 to 1.10. I told him, I was cutting my losses there! =))

So, back to topic, FLI vs MEG. Technically speaking, I think I like how MEG looks better than FLI, not that I'm bitter.. (Haha!) For starters, I like shallower retracements and MEG retraced only 50% while FLI retraced 78.6%. Be mindful of FLI's resistance at 1.28 to 1.30. MEG, on the other hand, just broke out from a 20 cent range with resistance at 2.20. This leads to a minimum upside of 2.40. These are very short-term targets, of course. :P 

Hmm... EDC was a monster today. I thought it would continue all the way up to 7 already. (Exagerration lang. :P) It reached a high of 6.74 but gains weren't sustained and it closed at 6.48. Funny, I remember my sister telling me before that every time I text her that a certain stock is going up, that usually means that a stock is near its peak already. Same goes when a stock is going down and that's the bottom already. Today, I sent a client a text message saying EDC was doing at 6.70. What was today's high? :)) Crazyyyy!

All this talk about stocks I don't have is a bit depressing! HAHA! Let's talk about some of my babies. Last Friday, I bought ICT in anticipation of a breakout. I bought more today at 42. Come on 44 / 47! Aside from ICT, I also have SMC, MER, CMT (Yes, I am still trying to break the curse) and LND. I sold my FPH today. :) 

Window Dressing

(March 31, 2011 Late Post)

EXIT*! In the two years that I've been trading, I never understood how window dressing was such a big deal. Sure, it's the end of the quarter but nothing ever happens. Maybe some forced closings here and there but there was never momentum intraday. Today was quite different. We had breakouts everywhere (empahsis on AP)! :P It's like, "Ohhh, life!" Now the question is, can this 'life' be sustained? My boss was joking/warning us this morning, "April na bukas ha. Baka ma-April fools kayo." Hahaha! 

By the way, I'm still amazed with what happened with DGTL. Imagine, such bullishness one day and then such devastation the next! Worse thing is, pinahintay ka pa ng isang araw. It was suspended two days ago right? :)) I actually got around 1.60's. I sold half at 1.89 and cancelled my selling at 1.98! Oh such regret. And to think I bought back the shares I sold at the close. But thing is, I'm so fascinated with incredible gap down on news regarding a tender offer at 1.60 that I didn't mind my loss that much. Maybe it's got something to do with me just buying a miniscule position. Anyway, two words come to mind when I recall the devastation that was DGTL: awestruck and breathtaking (forgive the unparrallel construction). You know, words that sound like they 'hit' or 'took' something from you. :)) 

 

*EXIT - Isn't that short for EXcITing? Don't believe me? Try opening a door with an EXIT sign. Alligators are waiting there. Don't say I didn't warn you. Oh wait, this can only be found in the "Evil Lair". Secret location. :)) 

Spot the difference!

LR chart now vs DMC last 2009. :)

Survived Whipsaw Wonderland

Woo! After prolonged whipsaws here and there, my portfolio has moved to past break-even today! I'm not doing good so far this year but I really learned a lot. My goal was just to survive a ranging environment. The past month has been very good for range traders but I sticked to where my strength is. I kept on buying the breakouts thinking that a trend is about to start but it was always wrong. I felt proud of myself though that despite a drawdown of 7%, I managed to be unemotional in my trades and kept my faith in my system. Who knows, April may be the best month for trend followers!

Here's my portfolio holdings and performance at the end of Q1. I should get an additional 2% when I get the cash dividend from my AP holdings. :) Good luck in Q2!

The line in green is my equity while the blue line is PSEi.

Parachute

The past few months have been challenging and, most of the time, discouraging. I think this is the first time I didn't post anything for a week (not counting the times I was out on an actual vacation). :P This market made me doubt everything, even Price. What is the first tenet of Technical Analysis? Price discounts everything or Price is King. The second I doubted it, I was doomed to fail. Sabi nga sa story-less Sucker Punch, "If you don't stand for anything, you will fall for anything." I lost conviction because of our choppy market. I should have known when to stop right? Well, actually, I did! I stopped trading before, remember? I just resumed trading too soon. Oh well, who would have thought determination and perseverance would be such a bad thing?! Hahaha! I'm just kidding. Anyway, this is me, again, trying. 

The past few weeks, I've been trying to position trade. Short-term trading seemed like it wasn't working anymore so I tried something else. A realization hit me the other day. I no longer know how to position! It makes me uncomfortable. What have I turned into?? Haha! So, I decided to clean my portfolio and start again. It's not yet stark clean but I'm getting there. Yesterday, I received a ray of light in the form of DGTL. Today, it was CYBR. Similar chart setups may be found in recent plays like MER and JGS. I think they have the same setup from the previously hot stocks, AP, LPZ, DMC, to name a few. My mistake before was trying to anticipate which stocks will breakout based on a promising bottoming out formations. I can't spot cycles anymore. The laggard doesn't always follow the leader. Is it just me? I feel like the market is moving randomly. It's flaky too. So, my game plan now is to take note of stocks that look like they are bottoming out and buy on breakout momentum (I got my eye on AP and FPH). This kind of strategy ought to have worked well with PNB today, and apparently, it also did on CYBR. Since it's also a bit momentum-ish, my holding period remains short: 1 to 3 days on stocks like CYBR, then a bit longer on slower and less volatile stocks like EDC, DMC, PNB, for example. This strategy has one limitation/flaw. It's a momentum based strategy. I noticed, the selective plays are back. I just need to FOCUS and have FAITH. If all things fail, I'll have my parachute prepared. :)) 

Ollo!

Just in case you're wondering, yes, I'm still alive. Booyah! Hahaha! :) 

Yes, I love Calvin and Hobbes! :)