(Standard?) Deviations

I was chatting with my dad this afternoon. The first thing he asked me was, "Why did the market collapse today?" I laughed. Nagcorrect lang ng onti, collapse na! I guess my point is, it's still too early to say that it's a collapse. My sister was commenting on how we've become so spoiled with the 4-day woah-worthy rally that when it started to take a breather, we're suddenly so not used to it. When I came in the office this morning, I was surprised that I was surprised that the market was down around 20 points near the open. See, yesterday, I was taking note of the FB status messages of my friends. They were all excited responses to the market. I read status messages like: All in; Welcome to the 2011 Bull Market!; 7% in a day...One of those good days; Breakout day; FLI...Finally. :)) Just based on these stats alone, the contrarian in me was seriously suspicious but I disregarded that feeling. At the rate we were going, the scenario I had in mind was a fake breakout above the 4,200-4,250 resistance levels. I was expecting momentum would first slow down before we close on the red. Apparently not. It seems resistance is holding, so let's adjust expectations. Maybe a slight (or devastating?!) correction first before the eventual breakout? It's always interesting to see how prices recover after a correction, if they ever do, that is. :)) 

Today was a rather frustrating day for me. Nothing went according to plan. The biggest contributor to my frustration was LND. See, looking at the chart, it was my bottom picking bet. I refused to sell last week becuase I thought it's already near the bottom. Yesterday, I told myself that I recognize those candles... You know, the ones that look like a hybrid of an inverted hammer and a spinning top.. Check yesterday's and last Friday's candlesticks.. See, LND kept on forming relatively new highs even though it's sold down at the close. If it were bearish, it wouldn't be able to do that. But I was also a bit worried with the lack of volume. There is relatively higher volume the two times it tried to break the 2 level so when it formed a black candle intraday, I thought the bears are winning so I decided to sell. Oh boy, was I wrong. When I sold down to 1.95, I should have found it curious why the buyers suddenly appeared after I sold. Like, 700K was buying at 1.95. It was sold down a little bit after so I disregarded it and kept my posting at 1.96, 1.98 and 1.99. Slowly, my postings were hit and the buyers were toughening up. I recognized instantly that my previous analysis was sound (or at least, has yet to be refuted) and I was just chicken once again. For the third time, I bought back LND above 2 pesos. I bought it back because it reminded me so much of FLI. I got whipsawed several times there. When I finally decided not to try, it went zoom! Sheesh. KAYA KO TO! :)) It still needs to break its previous high of 2.09 though. Let's see! :) 

BTW, a friend of mine posted in FB: Will it FLI? Someone else replied: No, it will LND. Funny! :P