The market is not doing so well. I think our bleeding portfolios is enough proof of that. If we take a look at the index, it is dangerously courting support at 4,050. Remember last Wednesday, the index formed a bullish looking hammer? I took that as a sign that prices no longer want to go down further. The Dow went up big time that night and apparently, people took this as an opportunity to sell. We closed the week near the lows at 4,053. The index's potential downtrend line seems to be holding. All we need now to confirm the downtrend is a convincing breakdown below 4,050. Yikes!
Given our market conditions, I don't even bother bottom picking because low is relative. Oh wait, actually, I tried in MPI last Thursday. It was an experiment that failed! I bought near support at 3.71 but MPI closed the next day below support at 3.56. I cut loss at 3.65 and 3.59. :P If you think about it, we haven't really corrected that much. We just think the correction is so deep already because we bought at higher prices. So, if you think you're wounded and bleeding now, I think the market will give you more reasons to think again.
14 comments:
let's play forex! :)
ForEx?! Ang bilis nun! Baka pag maglaro na tayo ulit ng PSEi, sobrang mabobore na tayo sa bagal. Hahahah!! Is the market dead? I don't think so! Just a temporary drawdown, I hope. It's a welcomed vacation! :P
@Harley, gusto ko nyan! For diversifying income stream... Di nga lang ako marunong. Hay...
@Ms. Hunt, in my case, forced vacation. Gusto ko pa sana mag-kamal! Haha. I think you're right, I'm also of the view that there's still an act three coming up. And that it's best we stay nimble. :)
Sana next year na! :)
gen, matagal ko na nga gusto pag-aralan pero laging nauudlot. we have to start somewhere talaga :) we already know TA so we only need to learn the ins and outs.
dear hunt, I can't sleep coz of oanda iphone app. I have a 1 minute chart and i've been staring at it for the longest time! plus the rate table.. parang chrismas lights! hahaha!
/blur
Hahaha! Gen, tara! ForEx! Harley talked me into signing up in the virtual trading game in Oanda.com. Hahaha! I haven't actually started trading yet coz... I'm lost... in the website, I mean! :))
Harley, I'm fascinated with 1-minute chart! I watch the Dow using the 1-minute chart. Nakakahypnotize! :))
Game!
My first buy and sell!! I lost 14 cents. HAHAHA!! This is fun!! Harley, 1 min chart isn't even enough for me. I use 10 seconds. Woot! Hahaha
Hahahahaha! Woot! Woot!
ok dba? medyo ok na ako sa 1 minute. 1 hour for long term chart! pero for now puro 1 minute muna. hahaha how many units did you buy/sell?
1 standard lot is 100,000 units. if we trade using 1 lots. 1 pip is 10 dollars.
now I understand why we can't use the dailies. kasi wala tayong resources. if we use dailies, sigurado margin call tayo lagi kahit hindi pa tamaan stop!
my records here:
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/harleyhensonw/practice-account/67384
gawa ka rin ng myfxbook para mas madali makita performance mo :)
hihihi! :))
Tralala! I haven't really done my research on ForEx. I was just bored this morning so I checked the USD/JPY chart. Hahah! I just bought like 1K. Kaya nga cents lang ung lugi eh. Mwahahah!
Check out 1-year USD/CNY. Steady until June 2010, now it's wild haha! June to Oct 2010 looks like a pretty clean trend for USD/JPY. Now it's not so clear since USD appreciated throughout November. Which currencies are you betting on now? :)
abi! i only check the 7 major currencies :)
so far I made bets in audusd and eurusd simply because they have the smallest spread hahaha!
i was supposed to short audusd but looks like it had a false breakdown so I went long. the 1M chart was also trending up earlier during the aus/asia time.
Harley, check out the recent comments on my blog. People seem to doubt trend-following systems can work. Well, I've devised a simple one that trades only PSEi and cash. Buy 3-month high, sell 2-month low. How crude is that? Hahaha I call it the "Caveman System" because even a caveman could follow the one and only trading rule.
Did some back testing and it would have done extremely well in 2008, and made about 20% thus far in 2010.
I don't have your software, just yahoo finance and a calculator. Can you do more extensive backtesting for me? How good or bad is the "Caveman System" really? :)
sure that's pretty easy. I'll write a separate blogpost for the result :)
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