Today was an interesting day. We were down as much as 85 points but we were still able to close the day up by 22 points. We formed a cool looking hammer today. If you remember, the index has support at 4,050. Today's low was at 4,062. So, the market fell close to support but we were still able to push higher. This confirms that there are, indeed, buyers down there and we won't just breakdown easily (or so, I hope). The inability of prices to fall further as seen through the hammer formation makes me think that we might just move sideways for now with support at 4050 and resistance at last Monday's high of 4,220.
I had a funny experience with SMB. I said yesterday that I found SMB toppish but it still continued to go higher during most part of the today's trading. Ah, I told myself this morning, SMB is finally taking a breather by consolidating at its highs above 30 pesos. I bought some shares at 30.40. Since my initial analysis on SMB is that it's toppish, I was extra careful so I had to watch it most of the time. I watched it consolidate for so long that I decided it wasn't worth it. I sold even before my cut loss was hit. Later on, it spiked to 31.90! That was the spike I was waiting for! Anyway, I wasn't idle after I've sold SMB so it wasn't such a loss that I shifted my attention elsewhere. I was very much preoccupied with CMT and AP. Come closing, I was very pleased to see SMB at 125. :P (Sorry, I don't mean to sound mean. :P) SMC was infected with SMB's weakness too.
Hmm... I'm still trying to figure out what else I can buy. Right now, I'm limiting myself to trending stocks. Normally, I would already bet on a stock that's consolidating in anticipation of a breakout but stocks like MPI, PNB, RFM, VLL, UBP are stuck in a range near their support. Right now, I can't tell where we're headed so I'm staying out and waiting for a breakout. There's another problem with this kind of strategy though...it's the occurrence of false breakouts, which occurs more often in a stock that has recently corrected. I'm over thinking, aren't I? In so many words, I guess, all I want to say is, "UGH! I'm so liquid. What should I buy?!" :P Haha!
10 comments:
being very liquid will really make you over think... :)
me, i'm now 100% invested to simply relax in anticipation of my vacation (of course, praying for my positions to go up, hehe)
btw, i think it was a black hammer...
you are right. There are plenty of false breakouts. whipsaw wonderland! hahaha!
looks like JGS 24 support not even strong.
Kon. wow, 100% invested? I applaud your confidence. I'm chicken! I'm only around 40 % in.
Harleeeeey, I got whipsawed in AP. Ayayay! :| No support is strong enough?! Haha!
My system is just not profitable at this ranging market. :(( It's easier if downtrend/uptrend. wag lang zigzag! hahaha!
Kon! grabeeee 100%! Chicken din ako at 60%! hahaha!
harley, if not fropitable, stay out/minimize exposure to the market nalang, i am 50% invested. surfer :)
thanks for the reminder surf. yup. i tried to buy breakouts but stopped out lang.
Looks like a medium-term downtrend already. Short term time deps, BSP SDAs looking more and more attractive. Cash is the new Bull Market!
If you turn your laptop screen upside down, the chart above should show the bull run in Cash vs. Stocks. Today's daily candle is further confirmation - the value of the humble Peso is on a tear against local equities!
Cheers, Abi! Cash is the new bull market! Hahaha!
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