If yesterday's 82 point decline was exaggerated, then today's 23 point rise was inflated. The major contributor with the index's movement today and yesterday was ALI. Yesterday, 1.4M shares were sold down at 14, which is 2 pesos below its normal price of 16. So, it was no surprise we were able to end the day up because ALI, naturally, bounced back to 16 today. Well, enough about ALI. What happened to the rest of the market? There were certain issues that fell like AGI, SMDC, URC. Banking issues like PNB, UBP, MBT were particularly weak today. Among the Lopezes, only EDC and FPH seemed to have found a short-term bottom. I hope their support holds. :-P
This morning, I definitely felt like the market was sinking lower and lower. There was an intraday rally but by the close, we still closed near the lows. I was totally uncomfortable with the market as I definitely felt some selling pressure. Is this the opportunity to buy? Well, I bought EDC since I saw that its support at 4.60 held. As usual, I'm only after the bounce. Every time I buy in expectation of a strong continuation, I see profits turn into stone so I already have a posting to sell starting at 4.80. Besides, EDC is still on a downtrend. It is possible that it may already be forming a higher low but that has yet to be seen. Besides, it retraced 60% from its high. That big of a correction says that the stock isn't that strong. Another issue I bought was ORE.
I made a wrong call on MPI. I bought at 3.31 and 3.32 because I thought it was ready to resume its trend. Unfortunately, it was sold down. I sold at 3.25 and 2.27. I still think the setup of MPI is promising. The strongest setups are those that don't want to go down. This reminds me a lot of LPZ. Both are still consolidating near their highs but somehow, I don't feel comfortable holding them. I have LPZ, by the way. These days, my greatest enemy is my impatience.
*I got the title from the stat of my friend, Pau. :)
6 comments:
Re: EDC, not that I disagree with your 4.80 bounce target, but may be we'll see a little bit more juice this time around. Look for an AB=CD in the current trade... for a target higher than the one you have. :)
I wouldn't make too much of the 60% retracement considering the relatively small sized leg the retracement is coming from. Had such a retracement occurred in a bigger looking, longer dated leg, then I too would be worried.
Hahaha! Yeah, I see the potential AB=CD. Target of 5.3? 4.80 is a very conservative target. I set my target there because I still don't know how strong EDC is yet. I'm open to the possibility that it can exceed that. But these days, I'm okay with getting out early and getting out when it's going up because when I wait for a certain target, I get shaken out with it corrects too much. (Yes, yes, WEAK hands! Hahaha!) But thanks for the reminder to set a higher target. I will definitely watch EDC's strength and act accordingly. :)
Ah, as for the 60% retracement, I said it wasn't that strong because in short-term setups, the ones that are most likely to continue their uptrend as sharply as they did previously would be those stocks that barely corrected. 30% to 50% are okay but 60% retracements are so-so because having seen the stock correct that much, there might be some people who bought while it was going down. When they saw it go down some more, they might want to sell at cost or near cost so the stock may be faced with a heavier resistance or a choppier move up. The fact that EDC still looks like it is within a downtrend in a slightly bigger picture makes me more skeptical and cautious.
I too get shaken out a lot these days. It's beginning to occur to me that this is the type of game the size of the purse counts, which as of this point, I simply do not have. (Deym you, big pursed people!). Still, we can take solace that we're small enough to be nimble, and take our profits (large or small) at their expense whereas they would have to content themselves taking very small profits from us when we get things wrong (and that is very rare... hehehe). Good luck, good luck!
Does size really matter? If you're just in it for the wave, its easier to just let the big ones do all the heavy lifting then we exit without even breaking a sweat! That is, sweat from the heavy lifting, not from nervousness. Hahahaha!! Good luck to you too!! :)
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