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    Stocks are bought on expectations, not facts.

Picks and Patterns for Halloween

Hey everyone, it's halloween so we'll have 2 months left to play this game for the year. Let's all help each other and maximize what we can squeeze out of this bull market.

Trick or treat!

Trend Following:

In hindsight, the correct entry was the breakout of the downtrend line. Currently, doing support at current levels. It is 10% of my portfolio. If my trailing stop is broken, I will sell.

Was able to ride from buy signal upto the false sell signal. Buy if recent high 4.13 is broken.

Recently broke from its consolidation and was able to trend further. Still undecided if I'm buying or not.

Recently signalled a buy but is still consolidating. It is 3% of my portfolio.

Recently broke out its bull 'pennant' and was able to trend up further. I bought some more today and is now 17% of my portfolio.

Signalled a buy 2 weeks ago and is now forming a bull flag. Should be a buy if the flag is broken to the upside. I am not adding anymore as it is already 30% of my portfolio. :)


Patterns Forming:
Buy if breakout.

I like the chart but needs to have support from institutions. Volume please.

Very bullish chart.



Speculative:

Got a few shares for speculation. I want that downtrend line to be broken soon! It is 5% of my portfolio.

18 comments:

Christina Hunt said...

Cash div for GMA7. 25 cents. :)

Christina Hunt said...

Harley, 17% lang ng portfolio mo ang DMC? WHY?! MORE! MORE! Hahaha!

BTW, for TEL, it hasn't graduated from its H&S right? No breakout yet.

Hahaha! Weekly breakout from a triangle. No volume though. But it's going up so, whatever! Hahahha!!

Christina Hunt said...

BPI pala ung may weekly breakout from a triangle.

Christina Hunt said...

For CYBR pala, connect Jan 28 high to June 23 high. You'll see a breakout at .62 and the correction right now may already be the retracement before it goes POOM! Hahaha!

Christina Hunt said...

What do you think of MBT, Harley?


P.S. Sheesh. Ang daldal ko. This is gonna be the fifth comment. Hahaha!

Samael said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Samael said...

Ka-abang-abang na MBT!

Anonymous said...

Nice run lately by MBT, just off its new high now. ICT, BPI, DMC have made higher highs again.

Wow! 3%-30% is a very wide range of bet sizes. How do you determine how much per bet?

Christina Hunt said...

I always bet 15% first. Then 10% when I'm more confident about it. Hahaha! When the market was shaky before though, mga 5% lang lagi muna coz I wasn't sure. Now lang na mas okay na ung market, back to my original position sizing. :D

Harley Wong said...

MBT and PNB are all trending up! :)

abi, MEG is only 3% because it's my initial entry. I'll increase bet size if the trend continues. I also have a wider stop so I need to have a smaller position.

christina, DMC? I'll buy more at higher levels :) hahaha! Hinay hinay lang!

I should eat M&M's later with nuts! ;p

Christina Hunt said...

Harley, 3% ang initial entry mo? Why so small? I pyramid. Haha!

Anonymous said...

Average up is good for higher profits. Can't handle the increased volatility though, so I got rid of it. I'm ok with lower risks and rewards. :)

I'll write something on position sizing soon. A much different way of doing it.

Anonymous said...

PNB does look interesting. I hope it goes up some more!

Harley Wong said...

not always! remember I bought this ATO dba? :)

Pero my style kasi is to lose max of 1% if tinamaan stop. You may wonder how can a 3% position lose 1%. I haven't finished my position building in MEG yet. :) Usually it's 4-5 buy orders. boring noh? but it's systematic!

In case of AP mas confident ako so I raised my risk to 2% :) I buy higher while raising stops.

May costume ka na for trick or treat? I'm gonna be Gomez Addams mamaya! hahaha!

Christina Hunt said...

Hahaha! I don't have costume! Mejo nadiscourage ako when i was costume shopping. Di ganun kaganda ung stuff. Hahahaha! Maybe I'll again tomorrow. :P

Harley Wong said...

Abi, yes PNB looks good. :) Looking forward to your article regarding position sizing.

It's only this year that I realized the importance of position building and money management. Dati when I win big, I lose bigger! hahaha! Now I lose small and win big! yey!

Anonymous said...

I lose 1% when stops are hit too. 1st half of 2010 that happened a lot. Then 2nd half, everything started flying!

You might already be familiar with it - volatility based position sizing. Trying to normalize risk across bets.

Haha look at the last minute, month-end window dressing today! Higher closes for higher fund manager fees. :D

Harley Wong said...

JPM loves DMC. :)

yes I use volatility based :) ATR to be specific.

that's it for our halloween edition!

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