As a trend follower, I am supposed to buy breakouts right? However, if a stock is jockeyed and is prone to whipsaw losses, what should one do to have an edge? Of course, we have to think like we're the jockey!
Using the price/volume analysis below, we could see that it is not profitable to buy long white candles with relatively high volume - the jockey is obviously selling to the public. It's pretty obvious in the chart that one should use a contrarian style to be profitable.
Buy during shakeouts, sell during hypes or breakouts. Let's see what happens next.
15 comments:
I like the idea, Harley. Didn't occur to me to look at price/volume action in that manner. My only comment is ORE now is entering unchartered territory (i.e 3.40 was the previous historical high) so may be, just may be, it'll be different this time. Let's see.
I guess you should check who's selling and buying too.
Angping was a net seller by 11M. :P
Has there ever been a time when a stock just took a life of its own (after being jockeyed for the longest time) that neither the jockey nor the stock could say where prices were headed? Especially when the bigger fries in the sea came in? (pardon the mixed metaphor) Hypes, after all, are known sucker even the best of them.
While I do not mean to suggest that is what's happening to ORE now, I'm curious if it can or has happened. Don't mind me. Idle mind. Hehe.
quite honestly.. i don't agree with you on this one.. the jockey needs to break the resistance.. because if the jockey is the resistance, the stock will not fly.. the public is not going to buy if there is no momentum.. that goes with any stock
yup but based on my analysis, ORE is prone to false breakouts so might as well think of a different approach.
Anyway, I hope I'm wrong so that people make money out of this. I actually like the new high!
Gen, yeah maybe this time, it'll be different. Let's see.
Was really more of a question than a statement. And I was not referring to the general public when I alluded to some "bigger fries".
Still, you're probably right. If the jockey is the resistance, and owns more than half the float, then the rest will just have to fall in line.
ORE also declines for about ten days(average) after 3 days of advances(average) in the past 6 months.
Technically it should hold above 3.25 levels to confirm the health of the uptrend.
@Harley, I think your right! There is going to be another pullback! :)
@Sam, thanks for the 3.25 reference. Gave me something to think about.
Hey Guys and Girls...were you able to sell ORE?
And when do you plan to buy back?....i personally am looking for 3.2-3.28 levels
I was expecting a deeper correction for ORE but given today's move, I'll give it the benefit of the doubt. I'm looking at a flag for ORE. It found support at 3.37 and was actually able to bounce from there. I'll remain bullish as long as this support holds but I'll be more bullish if ORE no longer closes near this support. Instead, be able to close higher tomorrow. Break above 3.55 should confirm a flag.
Gen, let's see next week!
Foreign Investor, I own 0 shares. As a trend follower, I was supposed to buy the "breakout" but the skeptic in me says no. I have no plans of buying ORE as there are better trending stocks out there.
Thanks for sharing your ideas guys. I sold half of my position earlier and left some just to see how does this go.
Good luck with your blog and trades
Interesting article. :)
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